| A new battlefront threatens to open in the world after a night of intense military action between India and Pakistan. It's an old conflict that’s playing out in a changing world order.
Indian missiles targeted nine terrorist camps in Pakistan in retaliation for the massacre of 26 civilians in Kashmir’s Pahalgam area last month, though Pakistan has denied any involvement. “Our actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature,” the Indian government said late Tuesday in a statement that emphasized no Pakistani military facilities were targeted by Operation Sindoor. India’s strikes were followed by artillery firing on the border as Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on social media that his nation would respond “decisively” to the “cowardly attacks.” Pakistan shot down Indian planes, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said in an interview to Bloomberg TV on Wednesday morning. As of 8:30 a.m. in Delhi, the Indian government has yet to comment on that. Despite the late-night reprisals, both countries have asserted they don’t want the situation to escalate. That’s what friends and partners are wishing for too. “They’ve been fighting for a long time,” US President Donald Trump said in an unrelated press briefing last night. “I just hope it ends very quickly.” India’s stocks and currency will be impacted by the news and as of early Wednesday morning several airports in the north were closed as precaution.  Local residents and members of the media examine a building damaged by a suspected Indian missile attack near Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan controlled Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. Photographer: M.D. Mughal/AP Though the two nuclear-armed neighbors have fought three wars, in more recent such flare-ups (in 2001, 2016 and 2019), both nations pulled back before these became full-fledged conflicts.
Some key differences may shape events this time, including the nature of the terrorist attack and the potential involvement of China and the US. The April 22 terrorist attack targeted civilians, especially Hindu men, at a time when the strife-ridden Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir was finally showing signs of economic revitalization. The attack took place as US Vice President JD Vance made his first visit to India to underscore the strategic partnership between the two countries. In response, India for the first time suspended a Himalayan river-water sharing treaty and was accused on Monday by Pakistan of choking river flow. In the weeks before the attack, Pakistan’s military establishment, especially Army Chief General Asim Munir, has been taking a harder line, using inflammatory comments to shore up popular support at a time when the country is recovering from an economic crisis and has diminished relevance to the West after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, China has bet over $55 billion on an economic corridor with Pakistan, one of its most ambitious partnerships under the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly given China’s fraught border and trade relationship with India. After the Pahalgam attack, however, Beijing called on Pakistan and India to exercise restraint. It also added that it was “Pakistan’s ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner” and “fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns.” Most importantly, these tensions come as India negotiates a trade deal with the US to retain its export access to the American market even as it seeks to benefit from a shift in supply chains due to the US-China trade war.
So while the India-Pakistan conflict is as old as the two countries and has shown itself capable of de-escalation, it must now also be viewed in a changed geopolitical context. One in which the world’s two largest economies are engaged in a new cold war and have deeper vested interests in India and Pakistan than ever before. | 
