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Good morning. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s White House visit went about as well as a meeting can when the host was questioning why you were even attending. U.S. President Donald Trump cast doubt on the value of free trade – and Ottawa’s place in it – though his remarks came just hours after a trade report showed Canadian exports gaining ground in other markets. Below, the surprising shift in the data – and what former trade leaders say Ottawa should do next to keep the momentum going.
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Real estate: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust is writing down $209-million on its real estate joint venture with Hudson’s Bay Co. after the historic retailer filed for creditor protection. The retail real estate giant also lowered its profit targets for the year and postponed its investor day as management re-evaluates a turbulent and uncertain outlook.
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Buyers are stepping back in Canada’s most populous city, with April home sales down 23 per cent and confidence still on ice.
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- More listings: Inventory in the Greater Toronto Area is up 54 per cent compared with last year, giving buyers far more choice than usual.
- Price pressure: The average home now sells for just over $1.1-million, down 4.1 per cent year-over-year – the third monthly decline in a row.
- Confidence check: Many buyers are still watching the market, but few are in a hurry to act unless prices fall further or sentiment improves.
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- The squeeze: In Ontario and B.C., high prices and slow housing growth have made major cities especially tough for new buyers to.
- The space: In places like Quebec City, St. John’s, N.L., and Regina, homeownership remains far more attainable.
- The surprise: Big, economically strong cities like Calgary and Montreal are still relatively accessible – proving that size isn’t the issue.
- The takeaway: For first-time buyers, where you start your search matters more than ever – and affordability isn’t always where you’d expect.
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Former federal trade minister Mary Ng. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
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How to turn a surprise into a strategy
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New trade numbers show Canadian exports to non-U.S. markets soared in March – helping offset the impact of new tariffs from the Trump administration. But economists are skeptical the shift will last. Below, a quick read on what happened and how three former trade leaders say Ottawa should respond.
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A bright spot: Exports to the U.S. fell 6.6 per cent in March – the first month U.S. tariffs kicked in – but exports to other countries jumped 24.8 per cent, led by oil shipments to the Netherlands and Hong Kong, and gold to Britain. The result, Mark Rendell reports, is a trade deficit narrowing to $506-million, which was smaller than expected.
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The but: Economists say the boost may not last. Export orders have dropped to pandemic-era lows, and Canada still sends more than 75 per cent of its goods to the U.S.
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- Mary Ng (ex-Trudeau trade minister): Focus on growth sectors like agri-food and clean tech, and turn recent trade deals – with Europe and the Pacific – into real business wins. To Ng, it’s about walking through the doors Canada has already opened.
- Ed Fast (ex-Harper trade minister): Rebuild business ties with India, China and emerging markets. Equip exporters with digital tools and raise the profile of underused trade support services.
- Mairead Lavery (former CEO of Export Development Canada): Simplify and co-ordinate existing programs. Too many agencies and funds create confusion – especially for small exporters trying to grow globally.
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The bottom line: The data sparked cautious optimism. But turning a surprise into a strategy will require targeted support, better infrastructure and a shift in mindset in Ottawa and across the business community, Radwanski writes.
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An uncomfortable truth: Canada has no choice but to deal with the U.S. on Trump’s terms. The sooner we understand them, Jeff Mahon argues, the better our odds.
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- That’s where the Canadian dollar landed Tuesday — its highest level in nearly seven months. A weaker U.S. dollar did most of the work, but investors were also watching Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the White House for any signal on trade.
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