It's Federal Open Market Committee day in the U.S., and while there's little expectation of a change in interest rates, the market's attention will be focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the FOMC’s press conference.

May 6, 2025

 

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What to know:

 

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

 

It's Federal Open Market Committee day in the U.S., and while there's little expectation of a change in interest rates, the market's attention will be focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the FOMC’s press conference.

The CME's FedWatch tool is pointing to a 97.6% chance of rates remaining unchanged and Polymarket traders are weighing a 98.3% chance, so it's the outlook that will take center stage.

 

Spanish bank Bankinter said in a note that a potential rally attempt for risk assets would for now be “naive,” pointing to indicators showing main U.S. ports are seeing a reduction in containers from China, while Powell is “likely to strike a chilly tone on both future cuts and the inflation cycle.”

 

“We are entering a phase of unclear direction, probably sideways but with a weakening bias that may last for several weeks,” Bankinter analysts wrote.

 

Adding to the cautionary tone is the military flare-up between India and Pakistan. India’s “Operation Sindoor’ kicked off during Asian hours with strikes in parts of Pakistan, which has vowed to retaliate.

 

Still, spot gold retreated more than 1.7% as traders took an optimistic stance on a U.S.-China trade deal and cryptocurrency prices are rising after New Hampshire became the first state to allow the investment of public funds into crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) has added 3% in the past 24 hours and the broader crypto market, as measured via the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, rose 2.57%. That's in contrast with equity markets, which fell Tuesday.

 

It's still too early to say whether markets will focus more on the need for safe havens as international belligerence ramps up, or on the desire to lock in a bit more volatility as trade tensions ease. One possible signal: The largest bitcoin ETF, BlackRock's IBIT has attracted greater net inflows than the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), since the start of the year. 

 

Ethereum's Pectra upgrade went live, the network’s biggest upgrade since 2022. The upgrade includes 11 major improvement proposals (EIPs), but whether it can reverse ETH’s decline against BTC remains to be seen.

 

Year-to-date, ether has lost around 47% of its value to the leading cryptocurrency, with the ETH/BTC ratio now sitting at 0.019. Stay alert!

 

A message from Grayscale

Grayscale’s New Income-Focused ETFs

 

Grayscale, the world’s largest crypto-native asset manager, now offers two new income-focused ETFs:

 

  • Grayscale Bitcoin Covered Call ETF (BTCC) seeks to maximize potential income generation, and is designed to serve as a complement to existing Bitcoin ownership.
  • Grayscale Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BPI) seeks to balance upside participation with income generation, and is designed to serve as an alternative to direct Bitcoin ownership.

 

Through two different approaches to systematic covered call writing on Bitcoin, these two products deliver an alternative income stream for investors that’s less correlated to traditional income-oriented investments.

 

BTCC and BPI both offer monthly distributions for investors.* See the latest distribution amount on their respective product pages at etfs.grayscale.com

 

Important Disclosures

*The Funds intend to pay out dividends from net investment income, if any, and distribute any net unrealized capital gains to their shareholders at least annually.

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Funds, please call (866)-775-0313 or visit our websites at etfs.grayscale.com/btcc and etfs.grayscale.com/bpi. Read the prospectuses or summary prospectuses carefully before investing.

Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee the investment strategy will be successful. The Fund is considered to be non-diversified. The Fund is actively managed and its performance reflects the investment decisions that the Adviser makes for the Fund.

 

Grayscale Bitcoin Covered Call ETF (“BTCC”) and Grayscale premium Income ETF ("BPI") (collectively, the "Funds") will not invest in digital assets directly. The Funds also will not invest in initial coin offerings. The Funds will, however, have indirect exposure to digital assets by virtue of its investments in derivatives on exchange-traded vehicles that hold digital assets as investments. Because the Funds will not invest directly in any digital assets, they may not track price movements of any digital assets.

BTCC and BPI are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC and Grayscale Advisors, LLC is the adviser. Foreside is not related to GSA or its affiliates.

 

Overnight Flows

 

What to Watch

Crypto:

  • May 8: Judge John G. Koeltl will sentence Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending firm Celsius Network, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
  • May 12, 1 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.: A U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on "Tokenization: Moving Assets Onchain: Where TradFi and DeFi Meet" will be held at the SEC's headquarters in Washington.

Macro

  • May 7, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision. The FOMC press conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
    • Federal Funds Rate Target Range Est. 4.25%-4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25%-4.5%
  • May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later.
    • Bank Rate Est. 4.25% vs. Prev. 4.5%
  • May 8, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 3.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 230K vs. Prev. 241K
  • May 9-12: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

  • May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $-0.11
  • May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.88
  • May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, $-0.10
  • May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.52
  • May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market
 

Token Events

Governance Votes & Calls

  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on whether to put the last $10.7 million from its 35 million ARB diversification plan into three low‑risk, dollar‑based funds from WisdomTree, Spiko, and Franklin Templeton. Voting ends on May 8.
  • Compound DAO is voting on which new collateral type to prioritize on Compound V3. Voting ends May 8.
  • May 7, 7:30 a.m.: PancakeSwap to host an X Spaces Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on the future of trading.
  • May 7, 9 a.m.:Binance to host an AMA on its Binance Seeds program.
  • May 7, 11 a.m.: Pendle to host a Pendle Yield Talk: Stablecoin Alpha X Spaces session.
  • May 8, 10 a.m.: Balancer and Euler to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.

Unlocks

  • May 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $7.75 million.
  • May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $47.82 million.
  • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $54.17 million.
  • May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.13 billion.
  • May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $16.74 million.

Token Launches

  • May 7: Obol (OBOL) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate.io, MEXC,and others.
  • May 8: Space and Time (SXT) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, BingX, KuCoin, Bitget, and others.
  • May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.
 

Conferences

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  • Day 2 of 2: Financial Times Digital Assets Summit (London)
  • Day 2 of 3: Stripe Sessions (San Francisco)
  • Day 1 of 3: SALT’s Bermuda Digital Finance Forum 2025 (Hamilton, Bermuda)
  • May 9-10: Stanford Blockchain Governance Summit (San Francisco)
  • May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto)
  • May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit
  • May 12-13: Filecoin (FIL) Developer Summit (Toronto)
  • May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research (TLDR) Conference (New York)
  • May 12-14: ACI’s 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York)
  • May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto)
  • May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto)
  • May 14-16: CoinDesk's Consensus 2025 (Toronto)
 

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa