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Daily News Brief

May 7, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering India’s direct strikes on Pakistan, as well as...

  • A truce between Washington and the Houthis
  • Plans for U.S.-China tariff talks
  • The UK’s biggest trade deal since Brexit
 
 

Top of the Agenda

Indian military strikes across Pakistan overnight put the two nuclear-armed neighbors in direct military conflict for the first time in six years. India carried out the largest air attack on Pakistan in more than fifty years, which Pakistan called an “act of war.” Pakistan said that it downed five Indian planes in response, although independent media were not immediately able to confirm that number. India’s strikes were a response to the April 22 killings of twenty-six people in India-administered Kashmir. New Delhi said those attacks had links to Pakistan, while Islamabad denies involvement and has called for an independent investigation. 

 

The latest.

 

  • India said it struck nine locations across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir that did not include military facilities, calling the operation “measured, responsible, and designed to be non-escalatory in nature.” Pakistani officials said they detected strikes at six locations and that more than twenty people had died.
  • In addition to claiming strikes on Indian jets, Pakistani forces carried out shelling across the line that divides Kashmir. Pakistan’s fire killed at least nine people, Indian officials said today, while Pakistan said Indian artillery fire along the border killed five people.
  • Pakistan’s prime minister pledged an additional “robust response.”
  • Flights were diverted or canceled over parts of the airspace of both countries, while India carried out air raid and evacuation drills in parts of the country today.

 

Global responses.

 

  • Indian officials said shortly after the attack that they briefed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who later wrote on social media that he was encouraging a peaceful resolution.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped “it ends very quickly,” while UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for de-escalation.
  • China, Iran, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the European Union were among those that called for restraint.
 
 

“The most dangerous scenario is one in which an Indian military response provokes a stronger Pakistani counterstrike, setting off a chain reaction that neither side can easily control. With both countries on high alert and nationalist sentiment running hot, the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation is far greater than analysts and the public seem to understand. In the worst-case scenario, this could rapidly spiral into a full-fledged war shadowed by the threat of the use of nuclear weapons and the prospect of catastrophic destruction across South Asia. That the 2019 crisis ended peacefully is no guarantee that the next one will as well.”

Yale University’s Sushant Singh, Foreign Affairs

 

Three Ways to Counter China in Trade Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. U.S. President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping, as they both stand backs to each other with their countries' flags behind them.

Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

De-risking supply chains will take years, but U.S. trade negotiators can set the table for success by strengthening enforcement, mobilizing investment, and lowering barriers, CFR expert Jonathan E. Hillman writes in this article.

 
 

Across the Globe

U.S.-Houthi truce. The United States and Yemen’s Houthi rebels agreed to cease hostilities against each other, mediator Oman said. The United States had carried out a military campaign against the Iran-backed group for almost two months. The agreement comes as Oman also helps with nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran. It does not apply to hostilities between the Houthis and Israel, which struck the main airport in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, yesterday.

 

U.S.-China tariff talks. The U.S. Treasury secretary and trade representative will begin trade negotiations in Switzerland this week with China’s vice premier, both governments said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he intended for the talks on Saturday and Sunday to “de-escalate” trade relations. Ahead of the talks, Chinese authorities announced economic stimulus measures that include cutting interest rates and easing permissions for banks to lend money.

 

A major post-Brexit trade deal. After three years of negotiations, India and the United Kingdom (UK) reached a trade agreement yesterday. London called it the country’s largest and most significant deal since Brexit took effect in 2020. It is due to lower tariffs on UK goods such as medical devices, whiskey, and electrical machinery and Indian goods such as clothing, footwear, and some cars. The United Kingdom estimates the deal will boost trade by some $34 billion per year by 2040.

 

Carney meets Trump. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump both said the bilateral relationship was on a better path after their Oval Office meeting yesterday. They both expressed interest in renegotiating the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade deal. Trump said he would still like to see Canada as part of the United States, but acknowledged it was not likely without Ottawa’s cooperation.

 

Sudan-UAE split. Sudan’s government said it will cut diplomatic ties with the UAE, accusing it of arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The UAE denies that allegation. RSF forces bombed Sudan’s temporary administrative capital of Port Sudan for the third consecutive day yesterday, hitting civilian sites such as a hospital and potentially hampering the distribution of humanitarian aid.

 

Venezuelan opposition members flee. Five opposition members who had been sheltering in the Argentine embassy in Caracas for more than a year have arrived in the United States, Rubio said yesterday. They entered the embassy after warrants were issued for their arrests during a government crackdown on dissent; Venezuelan authorities have for months blocked them from leaving the country. Rubio said a “precise operation” rescued them. Venezuela’s government did not comment.

 

Merz voted in. A second vote in Germany’s parliament yesterday officially elected conservative Friedrich Merz as chancellor after he lost a prior vote in a surprise outcome. The ballots were secret. Merz has pledged to increase Germany’s military spending and turn around the country’s economy. He said he plans to speak to Trump on Thursday, while French President Emmanuel Macron wrote on social media that he hopes for stronger Franco-German ties under Merz.


Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap. The two countries exchanged 205 prisoners of war each following mediation from the UAE, both sides said. The swap came as Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow led to the closure of the city’s airports for several hours, Russian officials said. Overnight, a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv killed two people, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

 
 

Germany’s Rearmament

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Germany’s ambitious rearmament plans come amid deepening concerns about the U.S. commitment to European security, Carnegie’s Sophia Besch tells The President’s Inbox.

Listen
 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, the conclave to choose a new pope begins at the Vatican.

  • Today, France’s Macron meets Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Paris.

  • Today, a two-day ministerial meeting to discuss goals for the next UN climate conference begins in Denmark.

  • Today, Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a visit to Russia.

  • Tomorrow, a Russian ceasefire in Ukraine is due to begin.

 

Trade Tools for Climate Action

A bar chart graphic that shows the value of environmental tech exports by sector

CFR

Green goods contribute to a cleaner planet and can also support significant energy-cost savings. Moreover, the United States can lead in the development and diffusion of green technologies, CFR’s Helena Kopans-Johnson and CFR experts Jennifer Hillman and Inu Manak write in this article.

 
 
 

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