There are plenty of things to worry about this week: The papal conclave. International crypto grifters. Utah’s fluoride ban. ChatGPT’s dumb future. A critical Fed meeting. But the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan — two countries with nuclear stockpiles — is by far the most alarming story, and not nearly enough people are talking about it. Here at Bloomberg Opinion, though, we have thoughts. Thoughts which will most certainly be aired during our live Q&A this evening — or morning, depending on where you live in the world. If you’re playing catch-up on the spiraling conflict, here’s a recap from James Stavridis: “Following the killings of two dozen tourists picnicking in a meadow in the Kashmir region two weeks ago, India and Pakistan are on high military alert and trading accusations and sanctions.” As with many international crises, conflicting narratives are muddying the truth: “The Indians believe the Pakistanis sponsored the killings through longtime support of the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba. (An offshoot, the Resistance Front, claimed responsibility.) On Wednesday morning, India began a ‘focused, measured and non-escalatory’ operation against nine sites of ‘terrorist infrastructure’ in Pakistan,” he writes. As of Wednesday afternoon, 26 casualties in Pakistan were reported after India’s aerial attacks. With deaths piling up on both sides, James worries the conflict could spread to the sea, where “a strategy of naval brinkmanship could bring the nations closer to broader war.” Still, Karishma Vaswani is holding out hope for reconciliation: “On many occasions they’ve been on the brink of major conflict, yet have successfully climbed down,” she writes. “They would be wise to follow a similar course of action this time.” We have to talk about the dolls. More specifically, the soon-to-be bald dolls: First off: Why is the White House so obsessed with the hobbies of little girls? It feels sexist — monster trucks and Xbox consoles are also under pressure because of tariffs — which might be why it’s not a popular talking point among Republicans. Secondly, has the Trump administration actually thought about what a made-in-America doll would look like? Because we already have enough nearly-bald Barbies in this country, I don’t need to see them on the shelves: Third: “Do most Americans want to sew tiny little skirts a thousand times a day?” That’s a question from Jonathan Cathey, CEO of a California-based toy company that manufactures products abroad. Personally, I think I’d get carpal tunnel after the fifth skirt, so that’s a hard pass for me. And it’s a hard pass for most Americans, judging by the survey Ron Brownstein mentions in his inaugural column about the similarities between Trump and Biden’s economic messaging. When asked if the US should raise tariffs to generate more manufacturing jobs if it meant higher prices, only 35% of respondents said yes and 52% said no. “Americans younger than 50 rejected that trade-off by nearly two-to-one, which may say something about both the squeeze on their finances and the extent to which younger generations are hoping to follow their grandfathers onto the factory floor,” he writes. Really, what young Americans want is simple: For the government to cancel student debt. And yet this week, the federal government restarted forced collections on student loans in default. “Thus comes to an end a five-year experiment, started during the pandemic, to pause loan payments,” writes Kathryn Anne Edwards. It also means that people who can’t pay back loans for their education are going to be treated more harshly by the government than those who cheat on their taxes. Sounds unfair to me! What’s worse, it weakens America’s already-weak bottom line: “The projected 2025 deficit is $1.9 trillion,” she writes. Hmmm: I wonder what could help reduce that deficit? It’s not the “one big beautiful bill” that Trump is daydreaming about. It’s much simpler than that: “The US could finally join every other developed economy on earth and adopt a value-added tax,” or VAT tax, writes Justin Fox. “A value-added tax is a tax on consumption, like a sales tax, but is levied at each stage of production, with credit for taxes paid at earlier stages.” That sounds far more preferable than painting gazillions of eyeballs on plastic dolls for the rest of your life, doesn’t it? Bonus Tariff Reading: -
If tariffs uproot the pharma supply chain, expect higher prices and shortages. — Bloomberg’s editorial board -
There are legitimate concerns about the economics of Hollywood, but Trump’s idea of a 100% tariff on movies is absurd. — Jason Bailey -
Bond yields are up and earnings outlooks are down, but stocks have soared like there’s no trade war in sight. — Jonathan Levin |