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Today’s Agenda

A Battle Is Brewing

There are plenty of things to worry about this week: The papal conclave. International crypto grifters. Utah’s fluoride ban. ChatGPT’s dumb future. A critical Fed meeting. But the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan — two countries with nuclear stockpiles — is by far the most alarming story, and not nearly enough people are talking about it.

Here at Bloomberg Opinion, though, we have thoughts. Thoughts which will most certainly be aired during our live Q&A this evening — or morning, depending on where you live in the world.

If you’re playing catch-up on the spiraling conflict, here’s a recap from James Stavridis: “Following the killings of two dozen tourists picnicking in a meadow in the Kashmir region two weeks ago, India and Pakistan are on high military alert and trading accusations and sanctions.”

As with many international crises, conflicting narratives are muddying the truth: “The Indians believe the Pakistanis sponsored the killings through longtime support of the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba. (An offshoot, the Resistance Front, claimed responsibility.) On Wednesday morning, India began a ‘focused, measured and non-escalatory’ operation against nine sites of ‘terrorist infrastructure’ in Pakistan,” he writes. As of Wednesday afternoon, 26 casualties in Pakistan were reported after India’s aerial attacks.

With deaths piling up on both sides, James worries the conflict could spread to the sea, where “a strategy of naval brinkmanship could bring the nations closer to broader war.”

Still, Karishma Vaswani is holding out hope for reconciliation: “On many occasions they’ve been on the brink of major conflict, yet have successfully climbed down,” she writes. “They would be wise to follow a similar course of action this time.”

Protect the Dolls

We have to talk about the dolls. More specifically, the soon-to-be bald dolls:

First off: Why is the White House so obsessed with the hobbies of little girls? It feels sexist — monster trucks and Xbox consoles are also under pressure because of tariffs — which might be why it’s not a popular talking point among Republicans. Secondly, has the Trump administration actually thought about what a made-in-America doll would look like? Because we already have enough nearly-bald Barbies in this country, I don’t need to see them on the shelves:

Third: “Do most Americans want to sew tiny little skirts a thousand times a day?” That’s a question from Jonathan Cathey, CEO of a California-based toy company that manufactures products abroad. Personally, I think I’d get carpal tunnel after the fifth skirt, so that’s a hard pass for me.

And it’s a hard pass for most Americans, judging by the survey Ron Brownstein mentions in his inaugural column about the similarities between Trump and Biden’s economic messaging. When asked if the US should raise tariffs to generate more manufacturing jobs if it meant higher prices, only 35% of respondents said yes and 52% said no. “Americans younger than 50 rejected that trade-off by nearly two-to-one, which may say something about both the squeeze on their finances and the extent to which younger generations are hoping to follow their grandfathers onto the factory floor,” he writes.

Really, what young Americans want is simple: For the government to cancel student debt. And yet this week, the federal government restarted forced collections on student loans in default. “Thus comes to an end a five-year experiment, started during the pandemic, to pause loan payments,” writes Kathryn Anne Edwards. It also means that people who can’t pay back loans for their education are going to be treated more harshly by the government than those who cheat on their taxes. Sounds unfair to me! What’s worse, it weakens America’s already-weak bottom line: “The projected 2025 deficit is $1.9 trillion,” she writes.

Hmmm: I wonder what could help reduce that deficit? It’s not the “one big beautiful bill” that Trump is daydreaming about. It’s much simpler than that: “The US could finally join every other developed economy on earth and adopt a value-added tax,” or VAT tax, writes Justin Fox. “A value-added tax is a tax on consumption, like a sales tax, but is levied at each stage of production, with credit for taxes paid at earlier stages.” That sounds far more preferable than painting gazillions of eyeballs on plastic dolls for the rest of your life, doesn’t it?

Bonus Tariff Reading:

  • If tariffs uproot the pharma supply chain, expect higher prices and shortages. — Bloomberg’s editorial board

  • There are legitimate concerns about the economics of Hollywood, but Trump’s idea of a 100% tariff on movies is absurd. — Jason Bailey

  • Bond yields are up and earnings outlooks are down, but stocks have soared like there’s no trade war in sight. — Jonathan Levin

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Telltale Charts

Who knew Taiwanese life insurance could be so riveting?! Last week the topic would have put me to sleep in minutes, but when currency charts suddenly look like Mount Thor’s 90-degree drop-off, you WAKE UP! Turns out, Taiwan’s domestic life insurance industry spent the past few years buying loads and loads of US bonds — more than $50 billion a year!! — and they never fully hedged their exchange rate risks. “As a result of this currency mismatch, when the greenback weakens — or the world believes that the White House means business — insurers have no choice but to raise their foreign-exchange hedge. In essence, they have to swap the dollar out,” Shuli Ren explains. “As the Taiwan currency’s outsized moves show, the global foreign-exchange market has become deeply unstable. Trump changes his tariff stance on a daily basis, but the damage is done.” Still confused? Read this tweet, it’ll all make sense.

If you had to guess how much money the federal government has sent to states for climate-related disaster relief over the past 20 years, what would you say? If you guessed a number in the billions, you’d be wrong: Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew John Stevenson says we’ve reached the dreaded T number: $1.1 trillion, that is. “The sources of these funds are in jeopardy as Trump and Elon Musk’s wrecking crew at the Department of Government Efficiency strip away the scaffolding,” writes Mark Gongloff. Ironically, it’s the smaller towns in MAGA land that are particularly reliant on Uncle Sam’s bank account: “Rawlins County, Kansas, with a population of less than 2,500, has received $265 million in federal disaster relief over the past 20 years, equivalent to 155% of its 2023 GDP. The county voted 85% for Trump last year and last favored a Democrat in 1936,” he notes.

Further Reading

Why did BlackRock’s CEO make $37 million in 2024? Your guess is as good as mine. — Chris Hughes

Australia’s biggest headache is the US — one of its closest allies — not China — Karishma Vaswani

AI could actually help air traffic controllers reduce their stress. — Thomas Black

In the UK, the forever war against excessive red tape is never won. — Matthew Brooker

When he talks about Canada, Trump sounds like a desperate suitor. It’s not a good look. — Nia-Malika Henderson

The Bank of England can get ahead of the curve with a half-point cut. — Marcus Ashworth

In the Middle East, Trump will soon discover that simple solutions die in complexity. — Andreas Kluth

Intentionally or not, Buffett named his successor years before retiring. More CEOs should do the same. — Beth Kowitt

ICYMI

Lawyers are quoting $1 million in fees to get pardons to Trump.

Apple is looking to incorpoate AI to its Safari browser.

Podcasts are a big business and the Golden Globes knows it.

Cardinal Kickers

The Conclave sequel we’ve all been waiting for…

But with