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Hi, China Watchers. Today we preview this week’s Xi-Putin meeting in Moscow, consider the prospects for U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva this weekend and kick the tires of those new CIA recruitment videos.
Let’s get to it. — Phelim.
THE DEFIANT DUO: THE XI-PUTIN MOSCOW MEET-UP
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made his 11th trip since 2013 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow this week to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe.
Xi’s trip started Wednesday, and on Friday Chinese and Russian troops will march together through Red Square (despite risks of possible Ukrainian drone attacks).
The two leaders have their collective autocratic eye fixed on the future through what will likely be three days of symbolic defiance against the U.S. and the European Union’s efforts both to isolate Russia for its war on Ukraine and to curb Beijing’s “predatory” trading practices.
“The message is ‘Our alliance is very strong, and you, the West, you cannot do anything against us,’” said Pierre Andrieu, a former French diplomat whose career included a stint at the Asia Division of the Quai d’Orsay overseeing China, Hong Kong and Mongolia and five years in the French Embassy in Moscow.
Xi and Putin are expected to use their meeting to strengthen that alliance with possible deals to help insulate the two countries from external pressure. The goal is to “deepen political mutual trust” and “promote practical cooperation in various fields,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement Sunday. That will include a possible agreement to build the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, Russian state media reported Wednesday. That project would channel Russian natural gas to China. (The European Union declared Tuesday that it would stop importing Russian natural gas in 2027.)
Xi’s presence in Moscow underscores Beijing’s solid alignment with Russia’s war on Ukraine — which has expanded over the past three years from dual-use technologies to weapons systems and the presence of Chinese troops on the battlefield. That partnership appears to be immune to what Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in February was an administration hope that it could “peel off” Russia from its alliance with China.
“I hope that this will put an end to the fatuous notion that the United States can pull what amateurs call a ‘reverse Kissinger’ and entice Russia away from China. That’s always been nonsense,” said Daniel Fried, former assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs. “The Chinese alliance validates Putin’s worldview that the free world order is on the defensive and maybe dead because of [President Donald] Trump, and it could be replaced by a different order in which Russia is a founding member, if not an equal member.”
Despite Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s frequent assertions that Beijing “supports all efforts for peace” in Ukraine, the conflict provides China’s military invaluable insights on modern warfare.“Russia and its invasion of Ukraine is a kind of geopolitical guinea pig for China,” said Ian Brzezinski, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy from 2001-2005. “With the support of China, Russia is testing the capabilities of Western military systems, Russian military systems, Western tactics, Russian tactics and other forms of battlefield technologies, while at the same time wearing down the West.”
U.S.-CHINA TARIFF TALKS
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet in Geneva on Saturday and Sunday with China’s top economic official, Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The goal: a truce in the U.S.-China trade war.
Don’t expect a breakthrough.
“What this meeting will do is start the process of negotiating with China, and this begins with the teams starting to talk,” said a senior administration official, granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions. That echoed Bessent’s assertion on Fox News on Tuesday that the weekend talks “will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal.” POLITICO’s Daniel Desrochers and Doug Palmer have the full story here.
There are already disagreements between the two sides. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Wednesday that the meeting was “requested by the U.S. side.” Trump denied that.
Bessent told a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Wednesday that a reduction of tariffs on imports of certain baby products is “under consideration.” But when asked on Wednesday if he would pull back on any tariffs to get Beijing to the negotiating table, Trump responded with “No.”
That may undermine Bessent’s credibility as the White House’s official point person on China trade talks when he meets with He in Geneva. And it underscores the challenge facing the two negotiators in trying to project strength heading into the talks amid challenging political and economic climates at home, as your host, along with POLITICO’s Megan Messerly, Daniel Desrochers and Ari Hawkins reported.
“The Chinese don’t know if Bessent is really able to bring home the bacon and is really able to seal a deal,” said Mary Lovely, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an expert on U.S.-China trade. “The president got into this 145 percent tariff in a kind of snit. How can Beijing know that Bessent can commit him to not doing that again once a deal is struck?”
Those tensions create a low bar for measuring the relative success of the talks.
“It would be a good outcome for them to come out of this saying ‘We had really constructive, frank discussions about how each of us see the relationship, the most recent actions and where we stand,’” said Greta Peisch, former general counsel of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. “I’d take that as a really good sign that conversations will continue.”
The White House’s belief that it has the upper hand in the talks may make that difficult.
“China needs us more than we need them,” the senior administration official said. “They understand they’re in a position of weakness.”
That’s not the view from Beijing, where the authorities are pulling out the stops to divert traditional U.S. exports to other markets to cushion the impact of the trade war.”I was in the local industrial park yesterday and they’re doing everything they can to help local manufacturers put products in the Middle East and in Africa. They’re saying, ‘We’ll give you some subsidies. We’ll work with the logistics companies for you. We’ll help figure out how to customize your product or your tooling so you can make it more specific to these regions,’” said Cameron Johnson, senior partner at Shanghai-based supply-chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions. “I don’t see anybody in the U.S. doing that.”
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
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— PERDUE NOW OFFICIALLY AMBASSADOR TO CHINA: Secretary of State Marco Rubio swore in former Georgia Sen. David Perdue as ambassador to China in a ceremony in the Oval Office on Wednesday. The Senate confirmed Perdue’s appointment last week. Ahead of the ceremony Trump said Perdue’s top priorities would be to stop “the flood of Chinese fentanyl across our borders” and to “seek fairness and reciprocity for the American worker.” Perdue’s progress against fentanyl may be an uphill battle. “The United States should view and deal with its own fentanyl problem objectively and rationally, cherish China’s goodwill…and promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations,” Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said in response to Trump’s comments.
—CIA RECRUITMENT VIDEOS: ‘CHEESY’ BUT EFFECTIVE: The Chinese government has come out swinging against the CIA’s new Chinese language videos to recruit spies for the U.S. The two videos launched last week “are another solid confession of what the #US does: not only maliciously smears and attacks #China, but also blatantly attempts to lure Chinese personnel, even government officials, to be their informants,” Liu at the Chinese embassy said in a post on X Tuesday.
Liu’s comments didn’t break any news. CIA director John Ratcliffe said in a statement that the videos are “aimed at recruiting Chinese officials to steal secrets.”
And the agency has a long list of the kinds of secrets it’s looking for.
“We’re seeking information on science, military and cyber, technology, economic information, valuable data and foreign policy secrets,” said a CIA spokesperson, granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak on record about agency recruitment strategies.
The two live action videos — “Why I contacted the CIA: to take control of my fate” and “Why I contacted the CIA: for a better life” — boast sharp production values and narrative arcs that suggest pre-DOGE era agency spending cuts. Their plot lines focus on government officials frightened by relentless official surveillance or frustrated by the luxurious excesses of senior Chinese Communist Party officials. Both videos climax with the officials hitting the “Contact CIA Online” button on their phones.
“We’re seeing more people with insights on China volunteering their services and information via our website on the dark web, and we want Chinese citizens to know that we always have an open door for them,” the agency spokesperson said.
China Watcher screened the videos with a former China-focused agency official to assess the effectiveness of their messaging. POLITICO granted the person anonymity because they weren’t authorized to publicly discuss ongoing agency operations.
“Are these videos cheesy? Sure. But the pitch is clear: we can offer you something Beijing can’t — control, dignity, and maybe a way out,” the former official said. “In espionage, you miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take. If these videos convince even one well-placed volunteer to step forward, they’re worth every second of screen time.”
The CIA agrees.
“If it weren’t working, we wouldn’t be doing it,” said the agency spokesperson.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
— EU WEAKENS RULES TO BLOCK CHINESE INVESTMENTS: The EU’s attempt to stop China from buying out its top chip makers and AI companies is being hollowed out from within.
National capitals are pushing to weaken rules that would require them to screen foreign investments in sensitive technologies, such as semiconductors or artificial intelligence, according to the latest draft compromise text on the review of the rules governing foreign direct investment screening, POLITICO’s Camille Gijs and Francesca Micheletti reported Tuesday.
The FDI review is part of a signature initiative from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first mandate: a new economic security strategy for the EU. As part of the agenda, she proposed in January 2024 to revamp rules governing how EU countries scrutinize inbound investments.
— TRADE TENSIONS TORMENT EU-CHINA PARTY: European Union frustration at Chinese trade barriers to the bloc’s imports overtook a reception in Beijing marking the 50th anniversary of EU-China ties Tuesday.
“We need to address what we strongly feel is a lack of level playing field for our companies and exporters in the Chinese market,” EU Ambassador to China Jorge Toledo told a crowd that included Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Hua Chunying. “If we want our relations to continue prospering, we need to do that with determination, especially now, to prevent that barriers be erected between us, when the world seems to be fragmenting.”
The Chinese embassy declined to comment.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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— INDIA DERAILS BUDDHA RELICS AUCTION: The international auction firm Sotheby’s announced Wednesday it would postpone a sale in Hong Kong of precious relics linked to the Buddha after protests by the Indian government. Sotheby’s said the delay in the sale of items including sapphires, pearls and rubies “will allow discussion between the parties,” the Hong Kong Free Press reported. That decision followed allegations that the planned sale of “sacred relics” would violate “Indian laws, international norms, and U.N. conventions,” India’s Culture Ministry said in a Facebook post Monday.
— COLOMBIA TO JOIN BELT AND ROAD: Colombia plans to become the 22nd Latin American-Caribbean country to sign up for China’s Belt and Road international infrastructure initiative. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro said Tuesday that he plans to sign a “letter of intent” to join the BRI in an upcoming meeting with Xi, Agence France-Presse reported. It’s the latest sign of tightening Beijing-Bogotá ties following the launch of a new direct cargo shipping link between the two countries in February. The Chinese Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the report Wednesday.
THREE MINUTES WITH…
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Yi Chen is a Chinese-born, New York-based filmmaker whose most recent film, Dissidents, is currently making the rounds of North American film festivals. Chen spoke with China Watcher about the long arm of Beijing’s security apparatus.
The tagline of your film about the experiences of three Chinese dissidents living in the U.S. is “Not even exile is safe.” Explain.
They left China and they went into exile in the United States because we’re a democracy and we have the First Amendment, but even on American soil, it’s not safe for them to have freedom of speech or to have freedom of expression.
In the case of the artist [Chen Weiming], his sculpture of Xi Jinping was actually burnt down; Wang Juntao continues to organize Chinese dissidents into a democracy movement but his mother is constantly under the constant control of the Chinese government. The husband of the third character, Wang Chunyang, is threatened by his local government officials. So even though they live in a democracy, the Chinese government is still able to reach beyond its borders to intimidate them or even harm them.
The vast majority of Chinese who emigrate to the U.S. don’t make it their life mission to protest against human rights abuses back home. What makes these three people so different?
They have a strong sense of right and wrong, a sense of justice and a very strong moral sense. For them, what they do is just the right thing to do. I asked Wang Juntao about this and he just said that he wants to make the world a better place. There’s a strong sense of hope. He told me his favorite song is “When You Believe” by Whitney Houston and Mariah Carey.
What’s the challenge of making a film that celebrates three Chinese people living in the U.S. when the dominant narrative here is China as a growing national security threat?
This film humanizes Chinese people who want democracy in China, who are patriotic, who love China as a country … but they want democracy. They want freedom. I think [the film] humanizes Chinese people.
As a filmmaker and as a Chinese immigrant, my films have always focused on Chinese immigrants, and especially the experiences that challenge stereotypes. Hopefully, after people watch this film, they will understand that Chinese people are not monolithic — we’re diverse.
HEADLINES
The Wall Street Journal: How a pillar of New York’s Chinese community did Beijing’s dirty work
Made In China: Lost and found: The unexpected journey of the MingKwai typewriter
The Economist: The terrible secrets of Taiwan’s Stasi files
HEADS UP
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— TAIWAN’S ANNUAL WHA EXCLUSION RITUAL: It’s that time of year again. Taiwan’s government is seeking an invitation to attend the meeting of the World Health Assembly in Geneva, May 19-27. The assembly — the governing body of the World Health Organization — invariably denies that request in a nod to China’s WHO influence. Taiwan’s consulate in Chicago mobilized demonstrators on Saturday urging Taiwan’s inclusion at an event where U.N. members decide on WHO global health strategies and budgets for the coming year. Likely to follow: Taiwan Foreign Ministry pleas for United Nations’ member support. They’re also likely to fall on deaf ears given that Taipei can’t even count on backing from Washington after the Trump administration announced its withdrawal from the WHO in January. Beijing allowed Taiwan to participate at the WHA as an observer from 2009-2016 while the island’s China-friendly KMT party held the presidency. But China has excluded Taiwan since the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party has controlled the island’s executive branch.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Daniel Desrochers, Doug Palmer, Megan Messerly, Ari Hawkins, Camille Gijs, Francesca Micheletti, Emma Cordover and Catherine Bouris.
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