Europe braces for Transatlantic capital reverse

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets

 

The spotlight hit Britain on Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump's 'big trade deal' announcement looks set to be a major relief for UK exporters, just as the Bank of England is set to cut interest rates.

I'll get into all the market news below, and, for today's deep dive, I'll explain why Europe may be better prepared to absorb a deluge of global investment flows than many assume.

I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. 

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more U.S. market news, click here. Please send any feedback to morningbid@thomsonreuters.com.

 

Today's Market Minute

  • The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the U.S. economic outlook.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce a trade deal between the United States and Britain on Thursday, the New York Times reported on Wednesday.
  • Ukraine is starting to consider a shift away from the U.S. dollar, possibly linking its currency more closely to the euro amid the splintering of global trade and its growing ties to Europe, Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi told Reuters.
  • Sentiment in the oil market has soured in recent weeks, but looking at current conditions on the ground - and refiners' profit margins - one would be forgiven for thinking that the oil market is doing extremely well. What gives? Reuters' columnist Ron Bousso explores this discrepancy.
  • Concern is mounting over just how big a hit the Chinese economy is going to take from the trade war with the United States, but so far the commodity most at risk - iron ore - is seemingly unaffected. Reuters' columnist Clyde Russell explains why in his latest piece.
 

UK eyes 'major trade deal'

A British official said the U.S. and UK were working to agree on lower tariffs on steel and autos, two sectors that have been hit by 25% U.S. levies. In return, Britain is likely to agree to lower its own tariffs on U.S. cars and cut a digital sales tax that affects U.S. tech groups.

The status of a 10% "baseline" tariff imposed by Trump on most countries including Britain remained unclear.

Awaiting the widely-expected quarter point UK rate cut later today, sterling appeared to shrug off the anticipated trade announcement. But the FTSE 250  index of domestically facing mid-cap stocks rose almost 1% on the news to its highest point since late February.   

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve chose not to change interest rates on Wednesday, a decision that was widely expected. The U.S. central bank flagged the high level of uncertainty ahead, arguing that it made it challenging to make any confident changes to policy or guidance. 

Embattled Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the risk that trade upheaval could lift both unemployment and inflation, creating tensions in the Fed's dual mandate on jobs and price stability.

"I don't think we can say which way this will shake out," Powell said.

But Wall Street stocks ended higher nonetheless, emboldened by hopes that the week ahead will see at least some easing of planned U.S. tariffs amid expected deals with Britain and others as well as weekend talks in Switzerland with China.

U.S. stock futures extended those gains overnight along with a broad advance in European and Asian bourses.

Although the first-quarter U.S. earnings season has been sideswiped by suspended outlooks and foggy guidance due to the looming tariffs, estimated annual profit growth for S&P 500 companies during the first three months is running at 14% - almost twice what it was on April 1 and above the 12% forecast for the first quarter made at the start of the year.

Elsewhere, US Treasury yields were steady to a touch higher after the Fed meeting, with $25 billion of 30-year bonds up for auction later on Thursday. 

The dollar index was slightly firmer, with the euro flirting with its lowest level in almost a month and China's offshore yuan slipping after this week's latest monetary easing from the People's Bank of China.

Elsewhere, Nordic central banks in Sweden and Norway kept their interest rates on hold.

Regional markets were unnerved by the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan. 

Trading was halted for an hour on Thursday at the Pakistan Stock Exchange after the benchmark index plunged as much as 6% following reports of drones being shot down in major cities including Karachi and Lahore. That came a day after Indian strikes on multiple targets in the country fanned fears of a larger military conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

The Indian rupee, equities and bonds also weakened in late afternoon trading there.  

 

Europe braces for Transatlantic capital reverse

Europe may be better prepared to absorb a seismic shift in global investment flows than many assume, as a number of regulatory twists are set to bolster euro market depth.

U.S. President Donald Trump's unilateral redrawing of world trade rules is raising the question of whether giant U.S. capital surpluses will have to unwind if tariff hikes succeed in squeezing America's persistent trade deficits.

For macro-economists, those are two sides of the same coin.

If the administration succeeds in rebalancing the U.S. economy, defusing dollar over-valuation and regaining the country's manufacturing edge, that will have to involve some shrinkage of the roughly $26 trillion U.S. Net International Investment Position, the excess of foreign capital in U.S. assets over U.S. investments overseas.

During March and April, there was considerable concern that foreign capital flight was indeed underway as U.S. stocks, bonds and the dollar fell in tandem. The sell-off was driven by mounting anxiety about the potential for a self-inflicted U.S. recession or stagflation, fraying U.S. institutions and the dollar's role as a safe haven.

At the same time, the euro and euro stocks soared, in part due to Germany's equally dramatic new spending and borrowing plans that refired hopes for longer-term growth and an expanded pool of high-quality debt assets.

But doubts lingered about whether Europe's smaller and shallower capital markets could ever accommodate a repatriation of the deluge of savings that have poured into U.S. assets over the past decade-plus. Some $7 trillion in European savings has flocked to Wall Street equities since 2012.

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Indeed, many reckon American markets attracted such vast sums as much because of their unrivalled scale and liquidity as any 'exceptional' American economic or corporate performance per se. In turn, the euro's smaller and more fragmented markets have raised doubts about whether the currency could ever challenge the dollar's wide usage.

 

Actual fund flow data supports the idea that capital is being pulled back across the Atlantic.

Mutual funds tracked by EPFR show that the second week in February saw net U.S. equity fund redemptions for the first time this year. That's only the ninth weekly outflow in 12 months. U.S. growth funds have seen five straight weeks of outflows.

Indeed, many reckon American markets attracted such vast sums as much because of their unrivalled scale and liquidity as any 'exceptional' American economic or corporate performance per se. In turn, the euro's smaller and more fragmented markets have raised doubts about whether the currency could ever challenge the dollar's wide usage.

Read the full column
 

Today's key chart