Good morning. Cardinals are voting in the papal conclave. The U.S. and Britain are set to announce a trade deal. And Netflix redesigned its home screen. More news is below. But first, we explore why Hollywood recently got the Trump tariff treatment.
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Hollywood recently got the Trump tariff treatment. On Sunday, the president announced a 100 percent tariff on movies made outside America. Filmmakers said the move would hurt U.S. filmmaking. Shares for Netflix and other entertainment companies fell. The next day, the White House said no tariff would take effect. We’ve seen this before for other sectors of the economy. But why would President Trump think Hollywood could benefit from more protectionism? Today’s newsletter looks at the headwinds the industry faces. Hollywood’s problemsWhen Trump talks tariffs, he typically speaks about manufacturing. He invokes American industries that have fallen from grace — steel, coal, cars — and the physical goods that they once made for the world. He complains that the United States imports more goods than it exports, leading to a trade deficit.
Hollywood doesn’t fit that description. It remains the world’s dominant moviemaking industry. American film exports are three times as high as imports, according to the Motion Picture Association. Movies are also a service; the product is entertainment, not a physical good. And unlike with goods, the United States has a nearly $300 billion trade surplus with services. Still, Hollywood has problems. For one, fewer movies are made in Los Angeles nowadays. Filming has moved to other states and, increasingly, overseas. Other countries offer cheaper labor and tax credits for filmmakers. This has erased jobs once held by Americans. “WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!” Trump posted online. Other fixesTariffs, however, are a messy solution to Hollywood’s problems. A levy on a Chinese-made phone is simply applied to the value of that product. But what would a tariff on movies look like? Would it apply to the production costs? Box office earnings? Would it depend on how much of a movie is filmed and edited abroad? What about movies — think of “James Bond” or “Harry Potter” — that require overseas filming? Would the toll apply to TV shows? Filmmakers say that a 100 percent tariff will force them to halt production altogether. Tariffs could also backfire. Other countries could put their own levies on U.S. movies. That could hurt global ticket sales. Most studio revenue is now international, Axios noted. The industry says it prefers a carrot instead of a stick: America could lure back moviemakers with its own tax credits. This is the approach that California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, backed on Monday when he called on Trump to support a $7.5 billion federal tax break for films made in America. But that would cost money at a time when Congress is already struggling to find ways to pay for tax cuts the president wants. So Trump once again invoked tariffs as his favored fix.
Early yesterday morning, Indian planes struck Pakistan. The attack was retaliation against a neighbor and nemesis that, India claimed, aided in a terrorist attack last month that killed 26, mostly Hindu tourists. Pakistan, which denies involvement in the attack, said it had downed five Indian planes in response. What’s at stake? The terrorist operation targeted Kashmir, a region both countries have claimed since India and Pakistan became independent nations in 1947. Today, each controls only parts of Kashmir. A border of roughly 460 miles, known as the Line of Control, divides Indian and Pakistani territory. In 2019, India stripped Kashmir of the autonomy it had enjoyed under the country’s Constitution and opened the region for more tourism. Visitors surged in, upsetting many Kashmiris.
Could this conflict spiral? The two nations face off periodically over Kashmir. Over the decades, they’ve fought three wars and had innumerable skirmishes along their disputed border. Since both countries possess nuclear weapons, an escalation could get dangerously out of hand. How might it end? India may not want a war. Government officials described the airstrikes as “measured, nonescalatory, proportionate and responsible.” It’s less clear what Pakistan might do; officials there called the airstrikes an “unprovoked and blatant act of war” that violated the country’s sovereignty. Perhaps the latest tit-for-tat will satisfy both sides, as some analysts expect. But if each keeps responding, a wider conflict looms. The United States could end up playing mediator. Related: Pakistan’s defense minister said he welcomed U.S. efforts to help defuse the conflict. In the video below, Mujib Mashal, The Times’s South Asia bureau chief, explains how things escalated.
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Drawing in the faithful
A papal conclave displays the Catholic Church’s might and majesty. With scarlet cassocks, the Sistine Chapel and smoke, the church reminds the world that its traditions and rituals persist, binding more than a billion people together. After more than a decade of decline, church attendance among Catholics in the U.S. has stabilized in recent years. Many are drawn to the rituals. Here are three stories from a year of reporting on how we believe now. A conversion: Erin Patrick’s path to Catholicism began on a treadmill in 2005. The gym TV was broadcasting live from the Vatican during the conclave that picked Pope Benedict. After she finished her run, Patrick, who works in sales in Atlanta, sat on the floor, transfixed, until white smoke emerged from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel. When it did, she “inexplicably burst into tears.” Patrick, 44, says she is now a devout Catholic. She has been praying for the church in the past week. “I’m already talking to Pope Francis and thanking him for everything,” she said. A reversion: Nick Woomer-Deters, a 45-year-old public defender in North Carolina, was a zealous atheist who swore he’d never go back to his Catholicism — until a few years ago, when he secretly started watching Father Mike Schmitz’s videos on YouTube while his wife slept. He began attending Mass, drawn by the “smells and bells,” he said — the robes, incense, hymns, liturgy. “It’s persisted for two millennia,” he said of the church. “I’m happy to be part of it.” A curiosity: Griffin Devine, 24, is a budget manager in Los Angeles who spends his day in spreadsheets. He identifies as agnostic but recently started attending Mass — inspired by friends from college and his girlfriend. He said the pope’s death made him feel connected to a global church. “Some see it as antiquated,” he said. “But I think it is very compelling and alluring.” In one map
Pope Francis appointed about 80 percent of the cardinals who are sequestered to elect his successor. As the map above shows, his appointments shifted the balance of power toward Asia and Africa, where Catholicism is growing fast. But those appointees may not choose another pope like him: Many hail from areas with much more conservative views.
Yaqiu Wang, a Chinese human rights advocate, shares advice for Americans who want to resist authoritarianism: Be brave. Here’s a column by Binyamin Appelbaum on charitable deductions for the Met Gala. Add friends to your leaderboard, now with more games. Follow daily scores for Wordle, Connections, Spelling Bee and the Mini — and add celebrity puzzlers for a limited time. |
