| Last month, President Donald Trump instituted — then quickly rolled back — widespread tariffs on dozens of countries after a market freak-out. He said he would give these countries 90 days to negotiate trade deals with the United States. On Thursday, Trump announced the first of these apparent deals: between the U.S. and Britain. But how much will these deals affect the U.S. economy, which is showing signs of a potential recession as Trump keeps a baseline 10 percent tariff in place for most U.S. imports? It’s not clear if these trade deals will amount to much A few months is a rapid pace for any trade deal, let alone scores of them. My colleagues at The Washington Post describe trade deals as “painstaking negotiations among technical experts who fight over regulations around issues such as the precise placement of the brake lights on cars.” This deal with Britain is more like an outline, in part because it’s not immediately clear what it contains. “It doesn’t sound like there’s a lot there,” said William Alan Reinsch, a trade expert who now advises the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Tariffs on some British vehicles would go from 25 percent to 10 percent, which would predominantly help the luxury-car market. Steel and aluminum don’t have tariffs anymore. (A good chunk of U.S. imports are from American manufacturers trying to get raw products from abroad, said Michael Strain, an economist with the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute.) And there are still 10 percent tariffs for most British products coming to the U.S. — suggesting to trade experts that neither side made enough concessions to significantly juice their economies. “A trade agreement worthy of the name should at least get tariffs back to where they were when negotiations started,” trade policy expert Ryan Young, with the free-market think tank Competitive Enterprise Institute, said in a statement. He added it’s not clear there’s a lot in the new deal that would open up British markets to American cars and other products. Tariffs caused economic damage. Trade deals may not be enough to fix it. Reinsch, the trade expert with CSIS, said that generally speaking even minor trade deals will help the U.S. economy (such as how Britain agreed to buy more planes from Boeing). But he cautioned they won’t dramatically reshape it in the same way tariffs slowed growth and threatened higher prices and job losses. “There’s no good news in any of this,” Reinsch said. “Just less bad news.” And economists say Trump’s tariffs are so damaging for the economy that they overshadow most trade deals he could make. “If we see a major course correction by Trump, that could help avert a recession,” Diane Swonk, chief economist with the global accounting firm KPMG, told me recently. This deal with Britain doesn’t seem to be it. Everyone is watching for a trade deal with China Meanwhile, Trump has launched a full-blown trade war with China. The U.S. has sky-high, 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods (and China has reciprocated), to the extent that The Post’s David J. Lynch says trade has virtually stopped between the world’s two largest economies. There’s no indication that’s changing anytime soon. Negotiators from the two countries are scheduled to meet in person this weekend, The Post reports, but analysts say there’s only so much progress they can make when the status quo is a trade war. In the meantime, critical baby gear, such as car seats, is expected to get more expensive — or not be on store shelves at all soon — because most of it is made in China. Same with fast-fashion clothing from Shein and many toys. And the European Union, another major player in the U.S. economy, is threatening tariffs on American imports. Negotiators have been talking for weeks but aren’t close to a trade deal, The Post’s Ellen Francis reports from Brussels. “Today’s trade deal with the U.K. starts to highlight less uncertainty,” said Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at the investment bank Piper Sandler, and the fact that China is willing to negotiate on lowering tariffs is good news, too. “As we move into summer, we will have more clarity and deals,” she said. Americans are bracing themselves for higher costs A new poll from the Economist/YouGov finds that 75 percent of Americans, including most Republicans, think Trump’s tariffs will increase prices. That and other polls have also found Americans aren’t optimistic anymore about their financial outlook improving anytime soon. After blaming his predecessor for the economy, Trump recently acknowledged that he does have responsibility for it. “Ultimately, I take responsibility for everything,” he told NBC News this week. “But I’ve only just been here for a little more than three months.” | 
