Hi, this is John Liu in Beijing — where seven years ago this month, I was staking out the lobby of Chaoyang Westin Hotel before dawn, waiting to fire questions at Trump administration officials as they prepared to kick off the first round of US-China trade talks. 

A lot has changed since then, and much hasn’t. With a new round of trade negotiations set to begin this weekend, it’s a fitting moment to take stock. 

The cast of characters is different. Instead of Steven Mnuchin, Robert Lighthizer and Liu He, the US delegation will be led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

But what hasn’t changed is who ultimately calls the shots: Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will still have the final say on any deal — or the lack of one.

The issues remain as wide-ranging and complex as ever, with new ones always at risk of being added. Just this week, Trump brought up the case of jailed Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai as another item for the negotiating table.

So, what should we expect from their upcoming talks in Switzerland? If the past is any guide, probably not a whole lot. 

WATCH: Bloomberg Originals explains why Trump unleashed tariff chaos 

Back in 2018, formal trade discussions between the US and China also kicked off in May, but it took another 20 months, until January 2020, before a deal was finally signed. What happened in between was a dizzying series of twists and turns. 

One episode in particular stands out for Beijing and feels especially relevant now.

After Mnuchin and Lighthizer traveled to Beijing in early May for the first round of talks, a Chinese delegation quickly flew to Washington for round two. Things moved fast: by May 20, both sides had issued a joint statement saying an agreement had been reached.

Then, just as quickly, it unraveled. Just a few days later, Trump abruptly backed away from the deal he’d just praised on Twitter as the agreement faced criticism at home. The sudden U-turn left Beijing with egg on its face.

Now, with Trump’s steep 145% tariffs fueling nationalist sentiment in China, Xi and his lieutenants will be in no mood to risk a repeat. After the Switzerland talks were announced, China’s Commerce Ministry said the US should “show sincerity” and not “say one thing and do another.”

That kind of rhetoric doesn’t suggest a quick deal is close, though it does seem the US is trying. The Trump administration is considering a steep tariff cut to below 60% as a starting point, which it thinks China may be willing to match, Bloomberg News reported.

But after years of being labeled a strategic rival, Beijing has no illusions about how quickly Washington’s positions can change. Bottom line: buckle up for plenty of back-and-forth to come. 

What We’re Reading, Listening to and Watching:

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• China’s marriage crisis is bad news for the economy
• Empty new Indian airports echo China’s past infrastructure pains
• Pakistan hails role of Chinese jets in repelling India strikes
• Trump to rescind global chip curbs, prepare new AI restrictions
• Odd Lots podcast on how China might really handle a US trade war
• Chinese apparel brand Urban Revivo CEO speaks on tariff impact, US expansion

President Xi is in Moscow on what looks like a victory lap for his vision of a multipolar world, one no longer dominated by the US. He’s there with Russian President Vladimir Putin and more than 20 other world leaders — including Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, the only European Union leader present — to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

The event is a clear reminder that many countries have maintained ties with Russia despite its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Western efforts to isolate Moscow. Chinese troops are set to march with Russian forces in the May 9 Victory Day parade, alongside military units from a dozen other nations.

Throughout the visit, Xi and Putin have doubled down on calls for a multipolar world and rejected US pressure. They reaffirmed their “no limits” relationship, took aim at Trump tariffs and vowed to resist what they see as American attempts to contain their rise.

An ornamental plate featuring Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photographer: Na Bian/Bloomberg

Interestingly, the Trump administration has echoed some of their views on a shift away from a US-led world order. There are growing calls in Washington to pull back from global conflicts and focus on national interests. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has even said a multipolar world is the norm.

Trump has also said it’s “natural” to ask China to help broker an end to the war in Ukraine. Plans under discussion between Moscow and the US — including a frozen conflict that would grant Russia de facto control of seized Ukrainian territory — mirror a proposal Beijing floated years ago.

But Xi’s push isn’t just geopolitical. He’s also working to deepen economic ties globally as a way to blunt the impact of Trump’s harsh tariffs. With Chinese exports at risk and growth forecasts slipping, finding new markets is a priority. 

A bigger win, though, may need to come from a reset with the EU. Before his Russia trip, Xi called on EU leaders to join China in pushing back against US “bullying” and lifted sanctions on EU lawmakers that had hampered mutual exchanges. European business leaders visiting Beijing recently got a warm welcome and promises to boost trade.

Still, major hurdles remain. The EU continues to press Beijing on overcapacity and trade imbalances. “The European Union is ready to put in the necessary effort,” Jorge Toledo, its ambassador to China, said. “We hope China will do the same.”

Tally the Cost

A weekly look at the big water cooler news in China.

This week, talk in China has turned to the Labor Day holiday and what it revealed about the country’s spending habits.

The five-day break is one of China’s “golden weeks,” where workdays are rearranged to create a longer national holiday. These extended breaks are designed to boost domestic travel and spending, something Beijing is pushing hard as it tries to stimulate the economy amid the trade war with the US.

Shoppers at a retail area featuring a Hello Kitty display in Beijing. Photographer: Na Bian/Bloomberg

But the data from this holiday paints a mixed picture. Retail and dining sales grew more slowly than last year. Tourist spending ticked up slightly but is still 10% below 2019 levels. The box office was less than half of last year’s levels.

There are a few reasons. Income growth has slowed, and with deflation and a housing slump, people are holding back on non-essential purchases. Another is experience: while tourism services have improved, travelers still complain about hygiene, repetitive attractions and inflated holiday prices.

A personal case in point: a hotel room in Linhai, a small city in eastern China, cost 900 yuan ($124) a night, triple the usual rate. Despite the old town’s unique history, it felt like mash-up of every other tourist spot in China, from Xinjiang-style skewers to Hunan stinky tofu and photo studios offering similar costumes for rent.

WATCH: Marriage Meltdown: China's Demographic Crisis

Crowds remain another problem. When 1.4 billion people take holidays at the same time, it puts enormous strain on roads and tourist sites. Trains can be so packed that many have to stand the whole way. Officials are so eager to get people spending — some even housed tourists themselves when hotels are full.

But this model isn’t sustainable. As Trip.com’s founder and chairman James Liang puts it, instead of having the whole country travel at once, China needs a flexible holiday schedule that allows people to decide when to take their paid leave. This will offer better experiences and more sustainable spending.