Here are three possible scenarios ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

United States President Donald Trump has made good on his threat to bomb Iran. And he promised to do it again if Iran does not capitulate on its nuclear program.

What will Iran do next? As Middle East expert Ian Parmeter writes, it has limited options. But history shows the clerical regime does not like to back down – it took eight years to bring an end to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

And Trump may see his approval ratings plunge if the US becomes embroiled in yet another long-term conflict in the Middle East.

The US reportedly dropped a dozen so-called “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear facility at Fordow in the attack. James Dwyer explains what these weapons are – and why the US is the only country able to deploy them.

PS. There’s just one week left until the end of the financial year, and there’s still time to make a tax-deductible contribution. Your gift today helps secure our journalism for the year ahead.

Justin Bergman

International Affairs Editor

 

The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. Here are 3 scenarios for what might happen next

Ian Parmeter, Australian National University

Iran has some difficult choices ahead. It has vowed a major response, but could be limited in what it can actually achieve.

What is a ‘bunker buster’? An expert explains what the US dropped on Iran

James Dwyer, University of Tasmania

The GBU-57 Massive Ordance Penetrator is a weapon only the US can deploy – but it may have unintended consequences.

Muted response from Albanese government on US attack on Iran

Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

The government issued a statement in response to the bombing, but there were no immiedate plans for the prime minister to speak on the matter.

Britain’s support for AUKUS is unwavering - but its capacity to deliver is another matter

Tom Howe, Monash University

Keir Starmer’s government, like those before it, is firmly behind the AUKUS pact. But there are some doubts the UK can provide the required submarines on time.

Australia wants more foreign investment. That’s why a $29 billion bid for Santos puts the Treasurer in a tricky position

Shumi Akhtar, University of Sydney

Regulators will have to balance Australia’s stated desire to attract foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.

Global warming is changing cloud patterns. That means more global warming

Christian Jakob, Monash University

Earth has less highly reflective clouds than it used to, and it’s amplifying global warming

Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety

Milton Speer, University of Technology Sydney; Lance M Leslie, University of Technology Sydney

New research suggests global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of wind gusts from thunderstorm downbursts, with serious consequences for air travel.

6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying

Vanessa Miller, Southern Cross University; Tony Yeigh, Southern Cross University

Australia has no nationally consistent approach to track bullying. Schools also need accurate data to understand if interventions are working.

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