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When I began my career as a political journalist more than two decades ago, the United States had just started the Iraq War. The searing lesson I took from that era is that, in wartime, the media must be skeptical of claims made by the government and subject them to exacting scrutiny.
That is the kind of reporting you will find in today's newsletter. And it is what you can expect in the weeks and months ahead.
Powerful forces are already working to deceive the public about this war. Help us fight back. Every reader who upgrades to a paid subscription allows us to expand the reach and amplify the impact of this work.
Thank you for your readership and consideration.
— Judd
A new war based on manipulated intelligence
More than two decades after the Iraq War commenced, history is repeating itself.
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On March 20, 2002, President George W. Bush began the bombing campaign in Iraq, justifying the attack with manipulated and bogus intelligence. Twenty-three years later, history is repeating itself.
The clear judgment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) is that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not authorized a nuclear weapons program. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, the nation's top intelligence official, said so publicly on March 25, 2025. "The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003," Gabbard asserted in her opening statement.
Last Tuesday, asked about Gabbard's testimony on Iran, Trump said, "I don't care what she said." On Friday, as his rhetoric became more bellicose, Trump was reminded of that March assessment and asked: "What intelligence do you have that Iran is building a nuclear weapon?" Trump did not say that the intelligence community had gathered new information since March. Rather, Trump said that "my intelligence community is wrong." He also publicly rebuked Gabbard again, adding, "She's wrong."
Now, to justify the bombing of several sites in Iran, top members of the Trump administration claim Iran is actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. Appearing on Meet the Press on Sunday morning, Vice President JD Vance said that the administration believed "the Iranians were rushing toward a nuclear weapons program." That directly contradicts the March assessment by the IC that no such program had been authorized, much less commenced.
Vance dodged questions on whether the intelligence has changed since March:
KRISTEN WELKER: Why launch this strike now? Has the intelligence changed Mr. Vice President?
VANCE: A couple things about that Kristen. What Tulsi said back in March is that Iran was producing highly-enriched Uranium that was only consistent with them wanting to build a nuclear weapon.
The transcript of Gabbard's Congressional hearing reveals Vance's characterization of Gabbard's remarks is false and misleading. She did say that Iran was enriching Uranium, something that has been true for many years, and that its enriched uranium stockpile was higher than that of other nations without nuclear weapons. But she was clear that they had not taken steps to build a nuclear weapon, nor had such a program been authorized.
On Sunday, in an interview on CBS' Face the Nation, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the intelligence about whether Iran had decided to build a nuclear weapon "irrelevant."
Margaret Brennan: Are you saying there that the United States did not see intelligence that the supreme leader had ordered weaponization?
Rubio: That's irrelevant. I see that question being asked in the media all the time. That's an irrelevant question. They have everything they need to build a weapon.
Brennan: No, but that is the key point in U.S. intelligence assessments. You know that.
Rubio: No, it's not.
Brennan: Yes, it was.
Rubio: No, it's not.
At a Pentagon press conference, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also avoided answering whether the intelligence assessment had changed since March:
Q: Thank you, Mr. Secretary, concerning the justification for these strikes, in March, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released their threat assessment concluded, "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Khomeini has not authorized the nuclear programs he suspended in 2003." So, what new intelligence does the US have since then that the Iranians have changed their position on nuclear weapons, and does this new intelligence come from U.S. sources and methods, or are we getting this information from other countries?
A: Well, I would just simply say that the President's made it very clear he's looked at all of this, all of the intelligence, all the information, and come to the conclusion that the Iranian nuclear program is a threat, and was willing to take this precision operation to neutralize that threat in order to advance American national interests, reduce the Iranian nuclear program and obviously collective self-defense of ourself and our allies.
According to several members of Congress who received recent intelligence briefings on Iran, the IC's assessment of Iran had not changed since March.
Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), the vice-chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, said he and other Senators were briefed on the intelligence on Monday and "got reconfirmed… that the intelligence hasn’t changed." Similarly, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said he was briefed last week and learned Iran "was not close to building a deliverable nuclear weapon" and "posed no imminent threat of attack to the United States."
The New York Times reported Thursday that "U.S. intelligence agencies continue to believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to make a nuclear bomb." According to the report, based on information from "intelligence and other American officials," the IC "assessment has not changed since the intelligence agencies last addressed the question of Iran’s intentions in March." (Rather, according to the New York Times, the IC believed "Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo.")
This is also consistent with the judgment of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the international organization that was monitoring Iran's nuclear facilities before Israel began its bombing campaign earlier this month. On Friday, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said that "[w]e do not have at this point, if you ask me, at this time, any tangible proof that there is a program, or a plan, to fabricate, to manufacture a nuclear weapon."
The United States also ignored the IAEA's assessments in the lead-up to the Iraq War, but the agency's conclusion that the country did not have a nuclear weapons program proved correct.
In Iraq, Bush administration officials cast aside inconvenient intelligence assessments because they supported regime change. On Sunday morning, Vance and Rubio repeatedly insisted that regime change was not the Trump administration’s goal. “Our view has been very clear,” Vance said on Meet the Press. “[W]e don't want a regime change.”
On Sunday afternoon, Trump endorsed regime change in Iran.
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