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What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Markets are accustomed to violence in the Middle East. That, at least, is the conclusion you might draw from the way financial markets — especially oil — reacted to the U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend and the threat of Iran blocking the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

Both Brent and WTI crude gapped higher by just 3% early Monday and have since reversed gains alongside positive moves in bitcoin (BTC) and futures tied to the S&P 500. The dollar index is trading slightly higher and gold is nursing moderate losses.

Long-term catalysts will overcome any bearish sentiment, said Valentine Fournier, an analyst at BRN.

"Despite short-term volatility and [short-lived] risk-off sentiment, long-term structural demand is growing stronger. Public entities like Texas and corporations like MetaPlanet are solidifying bitcoin’s position as a strategic reserve, laying the groundwork for a rebound once uncertainty fades," Fournier said in an email.

"We remain constructive on bitcoin’s resilience and believe Solana could outperform in a recovery. Ethereum has lost some institutional support short term, but may regain ground as volatility cools," Fournier added.

Mean Theodorou, co-founder at crypto exchange Coinstash, said volatility could persist during the week ahead as macro conditions and political headlines remain in the drivers' seat, with all eyes fixated on the U.S.-Iran situation.

Other observers pointed to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress, scheduled for Tuesday, and Friday's release of core PCE data as key events for the week.

Theodorou said that altcoins may remain active as traders seek opportunities outside of major-cap tokens, although "caution is warranted given recent price instability, with DOGE, ADA and SOL each posting steep double-digit losses, highlighting broad market de-risking as international conflict is set to dominate most decision making in the near-term."

In other news, Tokyo-listed Metaplanet said it bought another 1,111 BTC. The cryptocurrency exchange OKX is reportedly considering an initial public offering (IPO) in the U.S. Grant Cardone, CEO of real estate investment firm Cardone Capital, disclosed that the company has added approximately 1,000 BTC to its balance sheet.

As for the developing influence of artificial intelligence, popular AI agent Aixbt said decentralized perpetuals-focused exchange Hyperliquid has proved DeFi can outperform during real stress, referring the risk-off over the weekend.

"Next crisis gonna separate the platforms that actually work from the ones propped up by VC money and empty promises," the agent said. Stay alert!

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Crypto

• June 25: ZIGChain (ZIG) mainnet will go live.
• June 30: CME Group will introduce spot-quoted futures, pending regulatory approval, allowing trading in bitcoin, ether and major U.S. equity indices with contracts holdable for up to five years.

Macro

• June 23: The 20th EU-Canada Summit in Brussels, with EU leaders António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, focusing on strategic partnership, trade, security, energy, and crisis management. Leaders are expected to agree on the EU-Canada Security and Defence Partnership and issue a joint statement.
• June 23, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases April retail sales data.
  • Retail Sales MoM Prev. 0.5%
  • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.3%
• June 23, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
  • Composite PMI Prev. 53
  • Manufacturing PMI Est. 51 vs. Prev. 52
  • Services PMI Est. 52.9 vs. Prev. 53.7
• June 23, 10 a.m.: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will deliver a speech on "Monetary Policy and Banking." Livestream link.
• June 23, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses releases Q1 GDP data.
  • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 1.1%
  • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 6.1% vs. Prev. 2.1%
• June 24, 8:30 a.m.: 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May consumer price inflation data.
  • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.5%
  • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.5%
  • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.1%
  • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 1.7%
• June 24, 10 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee on the semiannual monetary policy report. Livestream link.
• June 24, 10 a.m.: The Conference Board (CB) releases June U.S. consumer confidence data.
  • CB Consumer Confidence Est. 99.8 vs. Prev. 98
• June 24–25: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit in The Hague, the Netherlands, where heads of state, foreign and defense ministers of 32 allies and partners will meet to discuss security, defense spending and cooperation.
• June 25, 10 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on the semiannual monetary policy report. Livestream link.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

• June 23 (TBC): HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, $-0.12

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