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Daily News Brief

June 23, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the aftermath of Saturday’s U.S. strikes on Iran, as well as...

  • Reports of an attack in Syria by the self-declared Islamic State
  • A NATO agreement on its spending target
  • Divisions over water-sharing between India and Pakistan
 
 

Top of the Agenda

The world is bracing for potential retaliation after the United States entered Israel’s war with Iran over the weekend by striking three Iranian nuclear sites. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting yesterday and Iran is holding consultations with Russia today. U.S. President Donald Trump called for Iran to “make peace” and threatened more U.S. strikes if it refuses, while also encouraging the possibility of Iranian regime change in a social media post yesterday. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that the United States “must receive a response for their aggression.”

 

The fallout. U.S. officials and independent experts gave conflicting accounts of the damage to Iran’s nuclear sites as a result of the weekend strikes. Trump said the facilities were “totally obliterated,” while Joint Chiefs of Staff chair Dan Caine said it would “take some time” to fully assess the operations. Iran may have removed some of its highly-enriched uranium stockpile ahead of the strikes, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog said.

 

Iran has said in recent weeks that it would target U.S. forces in the region if Washington struck it directly. Oil prices have been jittery amid the possibility that Tehran could try to close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping in retaliation. Israel and Iran continued to trade strikes overnight.

 

Global reactions. Countries including China, Pakistan, and Russia said the U.S. strikes on Iran violated international law, while Middle East countries such as Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia expressed concern about mounting escalations. They urged a diplomatic solution to the conflict, as did allies of the United States such as Australia, France, and the United Kingdom.  

 
 

“For [the United States] this is a classic war of choice. We didn’t have to do what we did. We certainly didn’t have to do it when we did. The president could have let it play out. It was not an act of pre-emption. What Iran had was a gathering threat, not an imminent threat…[The president] has made not just a big political gamble, but a strategic gamble…Iran decides what is the nature of this conflict going forward. Was this a one off? Will revenge be served cold? Will it be served hot, and how? So right now, Iran decides what are the implications, if you will, of Donald Trump’s gamble.”

—CFR President Emeritus Richard N. Haass tells CNN

 

The Damage So Far to Iran’s Nuclear Sites

A satellite shows an overview of Fordow underground complex on June 22 in the aftermath of an overnight U.S. strike on the nuclear facility.

Maxar Technologies/Handout/Reuters

Iran has more than thirty nuclear facilities spread out across the country, with several built deep underground. CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo looks at those that have been or could be targeted in U.S. and Israeli operations in this article.

 
 

Across the Globe

Attack in Damascus. Syria’s interior ministry said the Islamic State was responsible for a suicide attack Sunday in a Damascus church that killed more than twenty people. It was reportedly the first major Islamic State attack since former President Bashar al-Assad was ousted last December. The group has attempted to rebuild its forces amid the security vacuum in Syria following Assad’s ouster.

 

NATO spending target. After receiving an exemption in advance of an upcoming summit at The Hague, Spain dropped its opposition to a prospective NATO defense spending target of 5 percent of GDP, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said. The target calls for at least 3.5 percent of GDP to be spent on direct military needs, while 1.5 percent can go to related costs. Spain will instead commit to spending 2.1 percent of its GDP on defense. 

 

Claims on Kursk. Ukraine’s top military commander said yesterday that the country’s troops still control an approximate thirty-five-square-mile area of the Russian region of Kursk, refuting Moscow’s claim in April that it had pushed Ukraine out. Ukraine began its incursion into Kursk last August, but was fought back by both Russian and North Korean troops.

 

India-Pakistan water treaty. New Delhi will “never” restore a water treaty with Pakistan that was suspended after the countries’ recent cross-border hostilities, India’s home minister Amit Shah told The Times of India. The treaty had allowed water from rivers originating in India to reach Pakistani farms. Shah said New Delhi would divert that water for internal use. Pakistan has called the potential blockage of river water “an act of war.” 

 

U.S.-Belarus talks. Belarus released fourteen people, including the spouse of opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, from prison following the first direct U.S. talks with leader Alexander Lukashenko in five years. White House envoy Keith Kellogg visited Lukashenko in Minsk on Saturday. During the first Trump administration, the United States attempted to peel Belarus away from Russia, but the country remains an ally of Moscow.

 

South Korea’s new defense chief. President Lee Jae-myung, who took office earlier this month, has nominated longtime lawmaker Ahn Gyu-back to become the country’s first civilian defense minister in over sixty years. Some South Koreans have called for stronger oversight of the military in the wake of last December’s martial law declaration, which led to the former president’s ousting.

 

U.S. activist released. Pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil, a U.S. green card holder and former Columbia University student, was released on bail Friday after over three months in detention. The State Department claims his presence in the country undermines its foreign policy, while Khalil maintains he was exercising free speech rights. While the Trump administration still seeks to deport Khalil, the judge who ordered his release said that it would be “highly, highly unusual” to keep detaining someone who was unlikely to flee and had not been accused of violence.


Tokyo’s election. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) incurred its worst-ever result in Tokyo’s metropolitan assembly elections yesterday, a closely watched contest ahead of Japanese upper house elections next month. The LDP slipped to become the second-largest party in the assembly after being projected to secure roughly twenty-two seats. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said the party must “analyze what part of our messaging did not reach voters.”

 
 

The Hague Summit and the Future of NATO

U.S. President Donald Trump meets NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House in Washington, D.C.

Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Europe has little choice but to invest in growing its defense capabilities, CFR experts Liana Fix and Rebecca Lissner write in this Ukraine Policy Brief.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, the EU holds a summit with Canada in Brussels.
  • Today, the UN Security Council holds a session on Afghanistan.
  • Tomorrow, the Netherlands begins hosting the NATO summit.
  • Tomorrow, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank begins a meeting in Beijing to pick its next president.
 
 

Troubles for Japan’s LDP

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leaves after speaking to the media at the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) headquarters

Takashi Aoyama/Pool via Reuters

The country’s Liberal Democratic Party has seen its dominant position in national politics grow more tenuous in recent years, CFR expert Sheila A. Smith wrote for Asia Unbound after last October’s election.  

 
 

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