Plus: Breaking Down Supply Chain Risks Beyond Tariffs |
| President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has sent nearly every company that produces goods scrambling. The race is on to shift sourcing and streamline supply chains in a way that reduces both potential costs and risks. Proxima, part of Bain & Company, recently compiled its detailed Global Sourcing Risk Index which ranks countries according to their risks as sources for goods and manufacturing. The report was developed in partnership with Oxford Economics. This index, unlike many of the quick deliberations conducted in the past months, is not all about the presumed amount of President Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs. Proxima took a much wider view of all risks, including many of those that countries may have faced in the pre-Trump trade-friendly period. They examined geopolitical conflict, climate exposure, compliance and governance, human rights, trade barriers, labor and input price volatility and supplier concentration—all factors that might matter more in the next decade than the numbers displayed on the chart Trump showed at his “Liberation Day” press conference announcing the new tariffs. While the tariffs-first analysis of supply chain risk tends to put China at the top, Proxima’s analysis doesn’t even put it in the top five. The largest supply chain risk comes from Mexico, the study found, mainly because of compliance and governance risks, the country’s economic reliance on a small number of foreign partners, and risks associated with geopolitical conflict and climate exposure. The other countries in the top five include Turkey, Russia, India and the Philippines. Mexico, the largest trading partner for the U.S., is seen as particularly risky due to its role as a pass-through for Chinese goods into the U.S., and also because of its heavy reliance on the U.S. market. Its geographic location makes it vulnerable to climate change impacts—though the country has shown remarkable resilience here. Rapid increases in Mexico’s manufacturing economy, the report says, have also strained the country’s infrastructure and energy grid. However, Mexico isn’t the only country finding itself at a surprisingly high position on the risk index. The U.S. ranks 13th, which gives it a greater risk profile than Brazil, Malaysia and South Africa. This positioning on the list largely comes from the labor costs here, as well as the nation’s involvement in geopolitical conflict and exposure to risks from climate change. AI can do many things in business, but its potential to help enhance your leadership skills is often overlooked. I talked to Jacqueline Carter, a senior partner and North America director at global leadership development firm Potential Project, about how AI can help you out in that area. An excerpt from our conversation appears later in this newsletter.
Until next time. |
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| In today’s CEO newsletter: |
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| President Trump’s Saturday night announcement that the U.S. inserted itself into the current Middle East conflict by bombing three Iranian nuclear sites didn’t seem to shake markets in Monday morning trading, as investors stayed in wait-and-see mode. In fact, the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were all up less than a percentage point on Monday morning. However, Goldman Sachs warned, oil prices may rise up to 30% and hit multiyear highs if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global shipping lane—in retaliation for the U.S. attacks. At the conclusion of last week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, Chairman Jerome Powell said the looming uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs led them to hold baseline interest rates at the 4.25% to 4.5% they’ve been at since December. This decision was widely anticipated, though Trump continued to bash Powell as a “stupid person” for not cutting rates. And while Federal Reserve staff downgraded its economic projections—increasing projected unemployment in December to 4.5%, inflation moving up to 3.1%, and decreasing GDP growth to 1.4%—it maintained its projection of two quarter-point rate cuts this year. Consumers are feeling the economic malaise. Retail spending dropped for a second straight month in May, down 0.9% month-over-month, according to Census Bureau figures. Analysts say part of this decline may be due to purchases surging at the beginning of the year as consumers feared the impact of impending tariffs. However, some of it—including a 0.9% decrease in spending at bars and restaurants—likely indicates that consumers are being more cautious. Forbes senior contributor Erik Sherman writes other measures of consumer behavior show attitudes and outlooks are retrenching, with historically high use of credit cards and other forms of revolving credit. |
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| To the surprise of very few observers of the robotaxi industry—if any—Tesla did not launch its self-driving vehicles in Austin, Texas, over the weekend as anticipated, writes Forbes senior contributor Brad Templeton. What the company did launch was a limited ride service that features a “safety driver” in the passenger seat, available to take the controls if something goes awry. Tesla’s service also has limited hours—6 a.m. to midnight—a restricted service area that avoids downtown Austin and complex intersections and streets, and no service in inclement weather. Templeton writes that the removal of a “safety driver” is the biggest milestone in robotaxi development. The slower-than-projected rollout puts Tesla at a disadvantage in the robotaxi race—which currently appears to be led by Waymo. But Forbes’ Alan Ohnsman writes Amazon’s Zoox is the market entrant to watch. Zoox has a custom-designed van-line vehicle loaded with sensors and cameras. It has no steering wheel, pedals or external mirrors, and is designed as a bidirectional vehicle with an identical front and rear. It’s electric, with transit-like sliding doors, and will be able to operate for up to 16 hours per day on a single charge. Ohnsman toured Zoox’s California factory, where the Amazon subsidiary is producing vehicles, to launch its ride service late this year in Las Vegas. Pilot programs in San Francisco, Austin, Miami, Los Angeles and Atlanta are also planned. |
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| Two pending major transactions dominated sports talk last week. (Well, until the Oklahoma City Thunder won the team’s first-ever NBA championship late Sunday night.) On Wednesday, several sources reported that the Los Angeles Lakers would be sold to Mark Walter, the billionaire owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, for a record valuation of $10 billion. The team is currently owned by the Buss family, which ESPN reports will maintain a 15% share for an unspecified period of time. Walter, who bought the Dodgers in 2012, has owned a share in the Lakers since 2021. Walter, CEO of Guggenheim Partners, has invested heavily in the Dodgers since buying the team, and it’s paid off through two World Series titles. Forbes senior contributor David Bloom writes that the sale—which shatters the record NBA franchise price of $6.1 billion, set by last year’s purchase of the Boston Celtics by Bill Chisholm—shows the trend of deep-pocketed private equity moving into professional sports ownership, previously dominated by family owners. Bloom writes that the kind of investment someone like Walter can bring could help the NBA powerhouse team remain at the top of the rankings and continue attracting big-name stars both to play for the Lakers and root for them. In Major League Baseball, homebuilding billionaire Patrick Zalupski is leading a group of investors exclusively negotiating to buy the Tampa Bay Rays for $1.7 billion, writes Forbes’ Thomas Gallagher. Zalupksi, founder and CEO of publicly traded Dream Finder Homes, says his business has been profitable every year since its founding in 2008. The other investors negotiating to purchase the Rays include Union Home Mortgage CEO Bill Cosgrove and Fast Forward Sports Group founder Ken Babby. |
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 | | Potential Project Senior Partner and North America Director Jacqueline Carter. Foto: Søren Svendsen |
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| | | How To Make AI Your New Leadership Coach |
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| Business leaders are embracing AI tools to help them be more efficient, perform detailed analysis of financials, engage with customers and do research. But what about as a leadership tool? Jacqueline Carter, a senior partner and North America director at global leadership development firm Potential Project, says many are missing this highly effective use of AI tools. She recently co-wrote a book on the topic, “More Human, How the Power of AI Can Transform the Way You Lead.” I spoke with Carter about how to make AI your new leadership coach. This conversation has been edited for length, clarity and continuity. How can AI be used to help with leadership effectively? Carter: It can save us time. As a leader, time is one of the most valuable commodities. I can more quickly draft an email. It can take notes for me at a meeting so that I don’t have to worry about being able to remember what the priorities were. A lot of organizations right now are looking at implementing systems that do what AI does best, which is collect data, collect information and consolidate. That can be really amazing for leaders to be able to step out of management activities and lean more into leadership. The big question is, what are you going to do with that time saved? What we’re concerned about is, ‘It helped me write this email faster. I’m going to just write more emails.’ There’s a real opportunity to use that time to be able to have more human connections, and be more present with your people. AI can help with that, too. For a performance review, there’s some amazing AI tools. You can say, “Here’s some of the things that I know about [an employee]. Here’s what I need to talk to her about. What would be a good way to approach this conversation, because I think it’s going to be a little bit challenging.” AI can consolidate that information. But the key thing is to be able to make sure that I’m really focusing on you and having that really personalized experience using the technology, and leveraging it to be able to be more human. We’ve also seen amazing tools that can identify sentiment analysis, help a leader to be able to understand: I sent out a message about a major communication last week. What’s the sentiment in the organization? That’s data that we would never be able to have. That’s what AI does well, and it can be gold for leaders. The final thing that we see is that it can be a great coach. A lot of leaders that we work with are creating their own AI avatars where they share a lot of personal information about themselves. But then they can have a coach in the pocket. It can be like, “I’m about to have a conversation with [an employee]. Based on what you know about me, what do you think could be some of the blind spots?” From your perspective, what would the ideal AI-augmented leadership look like? There’s three core qualities of effective leadership. The first one is awareness: being aware of what’s going on inside and outside. Wisdom: the ability to be able to make good decisions and discern. And finally, the ability to bring compassion to the table: Being able to do hard things, but do them in a human way. There [are] key ways that we can enhance our awareness, our wisdom, our compassion. From an awareness perspective, we know that human beings are amazing at context. Who am I talking to? Why is this important? Do I care? Should I care? Am I tired? Should I not have this conversation if I haven’t had enough sleep? This is context. AI is amazing at content. That’s a real way to be able to move from my limited awareness to be able to leverage AI, which has amazing content to be able to help me in terms of enhancing my awareness. Content would be, ‘Hey, that email that you sent out last week about the organizational change, people don’t like it.’ That’s adding to my awareness. On the wisdom side, human beings are amazing at being curious and asking questions. AI is amazing at giving answers. That interplay, and then questioning the answers is a great way to play with the tool. It actually enhances our ability to make good decisions. If you ask questions like, ‘What am I not thinking?’ or ‘What’s a really bad way to go about what I’m about to do?’, this is a way to expand our wisdom. On the compassion side, because AI systems are designed to embed human empathy, human intelligence and models of good leadership, we can use those algorithms to be able to bring our human heart to the table. I want to be able to support my team in feeling more connected. Use those algorithms. Those algorithms can really help you to be able to enhance it. The augmented leader of the future—which is really now—is a both/and leader. They look at ways to be able to leverage the technology to be able to support their awareness, wisdom, compassion, and they also double down on being more aware, wise, compassionate. Where would you tell a business leader who has been thinking of using AI to enhance leadership to start? There’s two important places to start. We believe that in the age of AI, we need to make sure that we’re developing the best of our human capabilities and human qualities. As AI gets more and more advanced, we need to make sure that equally we’re being the best versions of ourselves. The starting point should always be your own humility, your own awareness of your limitations, your own ability to be able to set your vision? What kind of a leader do I want to be? Those are kind of the foundational questions that then will enable you to use the tools better. The starting point is around you and your own ability to be able to really know yourself well and [figure out] what are your opportunities? Then start playing around. Start experimenting with the tools, because the tools are fun to play with. Make it an adventure. And really challenge yourself to be creative about how you start to leverage the tools. If you’re asking questions and it’s giving answers that you think are not very helpful, there’s two things that I would say to that. The first is that the AI that you’re using today is already the worst AI that you’ll ever use. A lot of times when we don’t get good answers, it’s because we’re not asking good questions. If you’re asking a simple question—draft an email for me—and you’re not providing context [or] saying what you want, the outcomes, how do I want [the recipient] to feel, you are not providing enough context to be able to then get good content. If you get a bad answer, challenge yourself to be able to provide more context, ask better questions, bring more heart to the table. |
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Food production giant Hormel Foods will tap Jeffrey Ettinger as its interim chief executive officer, effective July 14. Ettinger worked in the same role from 2005 to 2016, and is currently board chair for the Hormel Foundation. He was selected for a 15-month appointment after a search to replace retiring CEO James Snee.
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Luxury group Kering appointed Luca de Meo as chief executive officer, effective September 15. De Meo joins the company from Renault, and current CEO and son of the founder François-Henri Pinault will continue in his board chair role.
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Children’s entertainment company Spin Master selected Christina Miller as its next chief executive officer, effective July 7. Miller has served on the firm’s board for the last five years, and she will succeed Max Rangel.
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| Send us C-suite transition news at forbescsuite@forbes.com. |
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| The Trump Administration is ramping up its crackdown on immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally or are no longer authorized to work. Here’s what employers should know to prepare for potential impacts on your employees and company. Part of what’s making work feel burdensome could be carrying the weight of problems that are actually keeping you from advancing. Here are five ways to get beyond doing things the way you’ve always done them and move toward improving your business. |
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| | The U.S. had the highest number of new millionaires in the world last year, according to the UBS Global Wealth Report 2025. How many Americans earned millionaire status for the first time in an average day? | | | Check if you got it right here. |
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