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By Teresa Rivas | Monday, June 23 War, What Is It Good For? Maybe stocks. Okay, so good may be an exaggeration, but after the U.S. entered the Middle East conflict with a strike on Iran over the weekend, markets largely shrugged off the news, even after Iran’s retaliatory attack Monday, which was intercepted, on a U.S. base in Qatar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite both ended 0.9% higher while the S&P 500 added 1%. “The direct economic risks are relatively muted,” noted Jason Pride, Glenmede's chief of investment strategy “The Middle East’s contribution to global GDP and trade may be relatively small, but second-order impacts from disrupted shipping channels should be watched closely…Geopolitical events have historically caused market volatility but are typically short-term disruptions to the market’s longer-term growth.” Still, many may have expected stocks to at least react to some disruption, however short-lived. But that didn’t happen Monday. Part of stocks' rally might have simply been relief -- the market hates uncertainty, so the Saturday strike meant it didn’t have to hold its breath any longer. In addition, some hope that after its largely symbolic retaliation, Iran may be willing to come back to the negotiating table. Macquarie Global Strategist Thierry Wizman believes some of those factors explain Monday’s mood, while warning against being complacent, given that “there remain many risks associated with the conflict, and these risks span the short and long term…Until these risks are resolved more definitively, they have the potential to move markets, mainly in an adverse way, especially if traders begin to focus more on the medium- and long-term risks, and not just the short-term risks associated with oil.” It’s impossible to say where things will go from here. And with so much already to worry about domestically (the spending bill and deficit fight) and internationally (unsettled tariffs), some aren’t sanguine about adding another log to the fire. Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments, writes: “The amount of complacency in markets is a bit frightening with the ongoing risks that still haven’t been addressed…There is bound to be a mistake somewhere in this mess of competing priorities. Either we are so desensitized to chaos or willfully ignorant, but either way bond markets may be underestimating the risks present.” 
DJIA: +0.89% to 42,581.78 The Hot Stock: Tesla +8.2% Best Sector: Consumer Discretionary 1.8% 
What's the Dealio with ElioIt’s summer blockbuster season. Unfortunately, no one told that to the movies. Elio, Walt Disney’s latest release, became the worst in Pixar’s history: It earned an estimated $21 million domestically and $35 million globally in its opening weekend, which began June 20. That compares to Finding Nemo’s more than $70 million opening weekend in 2003. Nonetheless, if the proliferation of Lightning McQueen branded items in my house is any indication, lackluster box office showings or critical reviews don’t determine the longevity or profitability of a movie or franchise. (And for what it’s worth, Elio has a 91% positive audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes -- much better than Cars 3.) My colleague Angela Palumbo has more on how Elio could still be a success for Disney:
Grab your popcorn. 
The CalendarAeroVironment, BlackBerry, Carnival, FedEx, and TD Synnex report quarterly results tomorrow. S&P CoreLogic releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for April. The seasonally adjusted National HPI fell 0.3% month over month in March, the first decline since January 2023. The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for June. Expectations are for a 99 reading, one point higher than in May. The index rebounded sharply in May after five consecutive months of declines, in part due to a deescalation of tariff threats. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. He will do the same before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. 
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