“Oil down, stocks up,” President Donald Trump said as he signed an agreement that could eventually end the Iran war. He even pointed down and up at the right moments to really hammer home the point and his love of the stock market.

And that’s exactly what’s happening. It has allowed investors to quickly move on from Kevin Warsh’s hawkish first meeting as Federal Reserve Chairman. Perhaps too quickly.

Warsh put an end to forward guidance and declined to add his own forecast to the Fed’s projections after the central bank held rates steady. But nine of the 18 policymakers expect higher rates by the end of 2026. The market is now pricing in between one and two rate hikes this year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The prospect of rate hikes is a threat to the stock market, and to the tech rally in particular. The Nasdaq slipped 1.3% Wednesday. But stocks look set to regain all of that lost ground Thursday after the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was agreed.

That’s a bit of a stretch, particularly given the market jumped Monday on news of the accord—but a rally doesn’t need much excuse to roll in the current environment.

Investors may also be taking confidence in a clear desire by Trump to boost the stock market—or at least to not let it drop.

The rate-hike threat has quickly been kicked down the road. Even Trump is relaxed—“it’s alright…whatever,” he said when asked about the central bank’s decision.

But an Iran deal is unlikely to rescue the market if the Fed decides to hike rates in the months ahead. Investors will have to hope something else will.

—Callum Keown

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In his opening salvo as Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh pushed back on the practice of providing markets with signals on future rate policy. Still, all signs point to higher interest rates by year-end after the Fed’s decision this week to keep them steady for the fourth consecutive meeting.

• The chorus of policymakers advocating for rate hikes strengthened. Nine of the committee members expect to see higher rates by year-end, according to the latest summary of economic projections. Eight forecast no change, and one projected a quarter-point cut.

• Warsh opted not to give a projection for rates. Taking into account all of the estimates, the median federal-funds rate is projected to be 3.8% by the end of 2026, up from the current median rate of 3.6%. In March, no members saw a rate hike this year.

• A hike could come as soon as September if inflation remains above 4% rather than close to the Fed’s 2% target, writes Stephen Brown, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. The consumer price index rose 4.2% in May from a year ago up from the 2.4% pace logged in February.

• Much of the recent inflation is a result of higher oil prices that are expected to ease once the U.S. and Iran formally end hostilities. But today’s projections confirm that policymakers are worried that underlying pressures will continue to keep price growth elevated.

What’s Next: It may become more difficult for Fed watchers to determine its next move. Under Warsh, the committee removed the forward guidance in the statement, which also got shorter. Warsh is establishing five task forces focused on Fed communications, the balance sheet, economic data usage, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks.

—Megan Leonhardt

President Donald Trump signed the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, a U.S. official confirmed Wednesday evening. But the details of the framework still leave plenty of room for uncertainty.

• Investors remain optimistic that, one way or another, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen—and that has dragged down oil prices. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures have dropped by more than 10% since Friday, with both trading below $80 a barrel.

• But analysts aren’t sure if shipping will ever resume through the crucial waterway at prewar levels. That’s in part because it is unclear if Iran’s agreement not to charge tolls for 60 days, as stated in the memo, will become permanent.

• Trump said Monday at the G-7 meeting that, “the strait is going to be open toll-free. And it’s toll-free beyond the 60 days.” When pressed on that detail during a press conference Tuesday, he acknowledged the extension wasn’t specified in the agreement.

• Lifting U.S. sanctions could prove particularly tough since Congress has “extensive sanctions oversight,” RBC Capital Markets’ head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft wrote in a research note. Israel may not fully comply with the terms, which could also throw the deal off.

What’s Next: Pulvinar vivamus fringilla lacus nec metus bibendum egestas. Iaculis massa nisl malesuada lacinia integer nunc posuere. Ut hendrerit semper vel class aptent taciti sociosqu. Ad litora torquent per conubia nostra inceptos himenaeos.

—Anita Hamilton, Liz Moyer, and George Glover

It’s Smartbird now after the former shoe company known as Allbirds sold off that brand, adopted a new name, and appointed a tech veteran as CEO. The move completes Allbirds’ unusual pivot from a struggling footwear retailer to a surprise play in artificial intelligence.

• In March, the company agreed to sell Allbirds to American Exchange for $39 million. It followed that deal the next month by announcing plans to transition into an AI data-center operator. New CEO Nadia Carlsten will be in charge of actually delivering the AI infrastructure.

• Carlsten, who holds a doctorate in engineering, previously served as CEO of AI platform DCAI and led product development for Amazon Web Services’ quantum-computing lab. He faces an uphill battle convincing Wall Street the AI pivot isn’t just a gimmick.

• Smartbird is now competing with AI infrastructure providers valued at tens of billions of dollars, such as CoreWeave and Nebius Group, in an extremely capital-intensive market. It plans to keep costs down by deploying chip clusters to customers’ specifications.

• It will also target midmarket clients that have trouble accessing cloud compute because of costs or security issues. It’s in active talks with potential customers, it says. Debt financing can help back its buildout. It doubled the size of a previously announced convertible bond to $100 million from $50 million.

What’s Next: Smartbird’s transformation is still a Hail Mary, though its stock shot up 39% on Wednesday. Then again, it is probably better to be an AI moonshot than a failing shoe company in 2026. At least that is what the market is saying.

—Nate Wolf

Restaurant spending isn’t collapsing, it’s becoming more fragmented. Consumers aren’t cutting back restaurant spending across the board; they are trading down to brands that offer clear value, or trading up to experiences they believe justify the price. Those in the middle are losing ground.

• Fast-food chains are leaning harder into value deals, trying to bring back diners after years of menu-price increases. McDonald’s is using its McValue platform to give customers several lower-priced options, including an under-$3 menu, $4 breakfast meal deals, and lunch and dinner deals starting at $5.

• Rivals such as Burger King and Taco Bell have been pushing their own discounts and bundled meals, too. The renewed focus on affordability is working. For McDonald’s U.S. comparable sales rose 3.9% in the latest reported quarter, Burger King posted 5.8% growth, while Taco Bell improved 8%.

• On the sit-down side, Chili’s owner Brinker International has continued to benefit from a sharp brand reset built around value, advertising, and operational improvement. In its fiscal third quarter, Brinker’s comparable restaurant sales rose 3.3%, including a 4% gain at Chili’s.

Texas Roadhouse tells a similar story. With beef costs elevated, it isn’t the cheapest meal. But it offers a clear proposition: large portions, familiar food, and an experience that feels worth the price. Its same-restaurant sales rose 7.1% in the first quarter, with traffic rising 4.5%.

What’s Next: In its midyear outlook, Consumer Edge calls pizza the “biggest loser” of 2026 so far. Health conscious diners are moving away from large, shareable orders toward lighter options, it said. Yum! Brands’ recent decision to sell a struggling Pizza Hut underscores how difficult the category has become.

—Evie Liu

As New York Knicks fans flock to lower Manhattan today to celebrate the franchise’s first NBA championship in 52 years, they and investors in shares of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. can be repeating the same phrase all day if they choose: Ball don’t lie. 

• The saying is used when someone is complaining about an officiating call. Was that really a foul? If not, then maybe the free throw shots won’t go in. The ball won’t lie. It’s fitting for a Knicks team that entered the playoffs far from favorites to win.

• But with a 16-3 record throughout the playoffs, the Knicks were clearly the best team this year. Similarly, inv