Good morning. Canada’s Finance Minister has suggested Ottawa won’t table a federal budget this year, instead working toward a fall economic statement. More below on how a rare break in tradition is running against pressures on labour, energy and the $27-billion cost of the government’s middle-class tax cut.

Housing: Ontario’s homebuilders have slashed purchases of new land for future residential developments in another sign that new home construction is slowing fast.

Alberta: The provincial government will be “playing with fire” if it continues to fan the flames of a referendum on separation, former premier Jason Kenney says.

Economy: Canada needs a “no-regrets” list of national projects to drive growth, a new report argues.

Loblaw warns tariffs will soon hit thousands of grocery items

Canada’s largest grocer is expanding its list of tariff-affected products as pre-tax inventory runs out – with price increases expected on a range of everyday goods.

• A closer look: Loblaw has flagged just over 1,000 tariff-hit items so far, but that number will triple within weeks and could peak above 6,000, CEO Per Bank said in a LinkedIn post.
• Behind the rise: While Canada has eased some countertariffs on U.S. ingredients and packaging, finished goods like orange juice, milk and dry pasta remain exposed.
• The play: Loblaw’s upfront strategy might help redirect frustration – but experts say that risks confusing shoppers if tariff labelling can’t keep pace with fast-changing policy.

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne’s suggestion that there will be no federal budget tabled in 2025 would leave key fiscal questions unanswered as the new government begins to govern.

Champagne said the Liberals will proceed in three phases: a Throne Speech, legislation to enact an income tax cut by July 1, and a fall economic statement to follow. The cut – expected to cost $27-billion over five years – is the most expensive item from the Liberal platform, and its rollout is moving ahead even as Parliament returns without an updated fiscal framework.

Champagne’s announcement also laid bare a central tension in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s early mandate: how to deliver growth and investment while managing the political and economic divides between new energy infrastructure, emissions targets and trade-driven uncertainty.

Ottawa’s pipeline policy: Yes and no

Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said he will travel to Western Canada “very soon” to work with provinces, Indigenous partners and industry on new projects. “We have a lot to do,” he said. “We look forward to building … to a more prosperous country.”

Minutes later, Canadian Identity Minister Steven Guilbeault questioned whether any new pipelines are needed, citing unused capacity in the Trans Mountain expansion and forecasts that global oil demand may soon peak.

Reaction from Corporate Canada to the new economic cabinet posts has been generally positive, but that tension is unlikely to go unnoticed. Executives from ATCO and Canadian Utilities said yesterday that Ottawa must move quickly to provide policy clarity if it wants to attract investment in hydrogen, ammonia and carbon capture. They warned that global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical instability and trade uncertainty are likely to persist – and that execution, not just ambition, will be the test.

“These aren’t merely aspirations,” ATCO chief executive Nancy Southern said. “They are imperatives of the highest order … because the future of our nation demands nothing less.”

Bringing down the barriers

Provinces are pushing ahead on their own agreements. Ontario and Manitoba signed a deal yesterday to reduce interprovincial trade barriers and commit to a direct-to-consumer alcohol sales agreement by June 30. Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have already signed similar memorandums, with more expected next month at the first ministers’ meeting in Saskatoon.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the goal is to ease the movement of goods and labour across provincial lines. While federal legislation is still scheduled for July 1, provinces are addressing internal trade more urgently as external supply chains remain strained.

Where the pain is being felt

As businesses across the country adjust to shifting supply chains and U.S. tariffs, concerns are mounting about job losses tied to broader economic uncertainty. Stephanie Ross, a professor of labour studies at McMaster University, told The Globe that the risks extend well beyond headline sectors such as manufacturing.

A new strike could also add pressure to an already fragile shipping sector, as global supply chains face delays linked to U.S. tariffs and economic uncertainty.

“Lots of people around the country are facing layoffs because of the uncertainty with tariffs,” she said.

That anxiety is resurfacing at Canada Post, where its 55,000 unionized workers walked off the job for about a month last fall. Ottawa asked the federal labour board to send workers back to the job in December when talks were at an impasse and a strike was disrupting holiday mail deliveries.

Negotiations have broken down again, less than two weeks before its agreement with management expires. The Crown corporation has paused talks, citing the need to prepare more comprehensive proposals. The Canadian Union of Postal Workers called the move “reprehensible,” saying the employer offered no timeline for returning to the table.