| Cheers to a wonderful week, ForbesBLK. Jabari here. I’m writing to you from sunny Cleveland, the host city of the 2025 National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) convention. This year is particularly special as it marks NABJ’s 50th anniversary. A year ago, the same convention made headlines for the wrong reasons following President Donald Trump’s interview with NABJ members; that session was a journalism catastrophe. Today, Trump continues to make headlines, but this time without NABJ’s involvement. His tariff policies are back in the news. On Thursday, new taxes on international goods officially took effect, including a 50% tariff on imports from India and Brazil, a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, and the looming threat of a 100% tariff on semiconductors. U.S. tariffs are reaching all-time highs, and soon, higher prices for consumers will negatively impact household spending power. Economists refer to this as the pass-through effect, in which companies ultimately pass the cost of tariffs on to consumers. To sort things out, I contacted Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs. If you recall, Briggs and I spoke for the newsletter in January. At that point, his theme for 2025: “Tailwinds probably Trump tariffs.” Goldman Sachs also estimated roughly 3% to 4% increases in tariff rates. Asked to revisit his perspective, Briggs’s new forecast has the tariff rate reaching 14% this year, and 17% in 2026. Additionally, Goldman Sachs anticipates 65% of the cost increases from tariffs will be passed on to the American consumer. “We were underestimating the extent to which President Trump was going to deliver very significant tariffs on most trade partners,” Briggs tells me. “It’s a big policy shift and there are going to be economic headwinds associated with that.” Adds Briggs: “Prices will be higher by Christmas. So, it’s either save more (money) or negotiate with your boss for a raise.” The thing is, as Briggs points out, the rules around tariffs change by the hour. That uncertainty makes it difficult to forecast the future. So, the higher prices expected by Christmas may not be too bad. But I wonder, among the tariff chaos, perhaps an economic discussion with Trump again at NABJ could have been interesting. Then again, maybe not. On its 50th anniversary, NABJ doesn’t need another disruption. My One Interesting Read: A look into the predicted economic disruption of superintelligence via The Economist.
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