Daily Briefing: Green byelection win | US carbon-levy ‘bullying’ | Italy attacks EUETS
 
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Snapshot

News

• UK: Greens win Gorton and Denton by-election in blow to Starmer | Press Association

• US ‘bullying’ could scupper carbon levy on shipping, warn experts | Guardian

• Italy calls for suspension of carbon price in major attack on EU climate policy | Politico

• China NEA: New energy to account for more than 50% of installed capacity and 30% of generation by 2030 | International Energy Net

Comment

• Britain’s great data centre balancing act | Editorial, Financial Times

• America’s dangerous pursuit of critical-mineral dominance | Editorial, Economist

Research

• New research on communicating policy goals, how “abrupt” changes to the Gulf Stream can serve as an “early warning” and climate change on German television.

Other stories

• Heavy rains kill dozens in south-east Brazil as flood risks mount | Bloomberg

• Net-zero asset managers initiative relaunches after wave of US defections | Wall Street Journal

• World leaders invited to see Pacific climate destruction before COP31 | Climate Home News

News

UK: Greens win Gorton and Denton by-election in blow to Starmer

Sophie Wingate, The Press Association

The UK Green Party has won its first ever parliamentary byelection in Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester, “dealing a bitter blow to Keir Starmer”, says the Press Association. It continues: “Labour’s defeat, trailing in third behind Zack Polanski’s Greens and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in the previously rock-solid Greater Manchester constituency, will pile pressure on the prime minister. Hannah Spencer, a councillor and plumber, emerged victorious for the Greens, with 14,980 votes and a majority of 4,402 votes.” The Financial Times says the Greens secured their “stunning victory” “comfortably”, with 41% of the vote.

Politico notes that “the contest was called after former minister Andrew Gwynne resigned from parliament last month over ill health – and saw Labour high command move to block Andy Burnham, a potential Starmer rival from the party’s centre-left, from running for the seat.” The New York Times says that voters sent Starmer a “searing message of dissatisfaction, demanding a more progressive government”. The Guardian describes the result as “Labour’s worst fears realised”. The UK’s right-wing newspapers react angrily to the development, with the Greens labelled "extremist" by the Daily Telegraph, “dangerous and divisive" by the Daily Mail and “communism-on-ketamine” by the Sun. There is further coverage in titles including the Wall Street Journal and Le Monde

MORE ON UK

  • UK activists are to begin two days of protest over the climate and social impacts of AI data centres today, says Reuters.

  • Energy secretary Ed Miliband said in a letter to MPs that the climate impacts of data centres is “inherently uncertain”, reports BBC News.

  • The Drax biomass station in Yorkshire is to stop burning “controversial” Canadian wood within the next year, reports the Guardian.

  • Household energy debt has “more than doubled over the last three years to reach £5.5bn, leaving typical customers paying an extra £50 a year on top of their own usage to cover it”, says an Energy UK report covered by the Press Association.

  • The chief executive of the Society of Chemical Industry tells the Times that UK industries are at risk from high energy prices.

  • The Guardian covers a thinktank report suggesting that councils should train their own staff to install home insulation, rather than relying on private contractors.


US ‘bullying’ could scupper carbon levy on shipping, warn experts

Fiona Harvey, The Guardian

Panama has reversed its support for a proposed global carbon levy on shipping, raising concerns that US “bullying” to stop progression of the tax could be “paying off”, reports the Guardian. It explains: “In a leaked document seen by the Guardian, the key maritime state has co-sponsored a proposal to the International Maritime Organization that would in effect cancel the carbon levy and undermine attempts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.” The document is “dated 20 February” and the “measures are presented by Liberia and co-sponsored by Panama and Argentina, which also operate key ports”, it adds. Countries agreed to the tax at talks last April [as reported by Carbon Brief at the time], but shortly before it was officially adopted US officials began “threatening small countries with reprisals if they supported the measure”, says the Guardian.

Meanwhile, Politico reports that the US Trump administration is “drafting a diplomatic memo that would warn countries against adopting a carbon tax on shipping pollution and other climate measures”. It continues: “The State Department cable, reviewed by Politico’s E&E News, says the US is ‘strongly opposed’ to a fee on ships’ climate pollution, and ‘will not tolerate’ the creation of a fund that uses carbon revenue for programmes aimed at lowering the industry’s emissions.”

MORE ON US

  • Major oil firms are urging Donald Trump to “stop [his] battle on onshore wind”, reports the Wall Street Journal.

  • Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” act subsidies fossil fuels by an average of $3.5bn each year, according to a new report from Senate Budget Committee Democrats shared with the Hill.

  • Emissions from US power plants “rose sharply” in 2025, says the Wall Street Journal.

  • The Environmental Protect Agency has moved to fire 22 staff that work on environmental justice, says the Hill.

  • Electric-vehicle company Lucid plans to lay off more than 300 employees in California’s Bay Area, reports the Los Angeles Times.

  • The Guardian: “Judge sides with salmon against Trump administration in hydropower ruling.”


Italy calls for suspension of carbon price in major attack on EU climate policy

Elena Giordano, Politico

Italy’s right-wing government is pressuring the EU to suspend its emissions trading system (ETS), the bloc’s flagship “cap-and-trade” scheme for lowering emissions, reports Politico. It continues: “Italy had already announced plans to subsidise power companies in a way that would undermine the core idea of the ETS: Making polluters pay for their planet-warming emissions. But on Thursday it went further, demanding Brussels suspend the mechanism entirely ahead of a broader review of the policy later this year.” Politico described the move as an “extraordinary attack on the EU's most powerful weapon for tackling climate change” that “suggests the consensus that has made the bloc among the world’s most climate-friendly jurisdictions is fraying”. A Lex opinion piece in the Financial Times says Italy’s earlier plan to subsidise gas plants is a “nifty idea to cut power prices”.


China NEA: New energy to account for more than 50% of installed capacity and 30% of generation by 2030

International Energy Net

Li Chuangjun, director of the new energy and renewable energy department of the National Energy Administration (NEA), writes in energy news outlet International Energy Net that China’s renewable energy development will follow the main theme of enhancing “reliable substitution” during the 15th “five-year plan” period. Li also calls for China to “continuously expand the supply scale of renewable energy power”, aiming to account for around 30% of total electricity generation by 2030, according to the outlet. China should also reach the target of new energy installed capacity exceeding 50% of the total, Li adds, according to the outlet. It also says that the country should “actively expand non-electric utilisation pathways” for renewable energy while fully leveraging the grid’s integration capacity, adds Li. Separately, economists estimated that China is likely to set its GDP target for 2026 at around 5%, according to the state-run newspaper China Daily.

MORE ON CHINA

  • Securities Times reports that, to export more solar products before the April deadline for tax rebates, Chinese manufacturers have “increased their production scheduling”.

  • “Lagging” consumption capacity and the deepening of market-oriented reforms have combined to squeeze the profit margins of electricity companies in China, according to BJX News.

  • As of the end of 2025, investment in China’s key “power source projects” increased by 10% year-on-year, while investment in key electricity grid projects grew by 7%, reports CPNN, citing the NEA.

  • The first meetings after the Spring Festivals of several provinces have focused on “green transformation” and “new energy”, reports Beijing News.

  • People’s Daily reports that China has been hit by multiple rounds of coldwaves this winter, bringing the power load to “historical records for winter peak demand”.

  • BJX News covers the joint statement signed by China and Germany to continue dialogue and cooperation on addressing climate change and the green transition.

Comment

Britain’s great data centre balancing act

Editorial, Financial Times

An editorial in the Financial Times asks whether the UK can “build the AI data centres it needs without driving up its already high electricity prices and torpedoing its net-zero targets?” It continues: “One priority is to winnow down the number of data centres applying for connections to the most viable, which Ofgem and the system operator are already trying to do. Preference could be given for projects with on-site generation – from clean sources – power storage, or smarter cooling. In some cases, Britain could ape Ireland, which requires new data centres to match demand with additional new capacity.” Elsewhere, a comment piece by Financial Times columnist Gillian Tett says Trump’s “ideological war on renewable energy” could undermine its AI ambitions.

MORE COMMENT

  • A Nature editorial: “EU leaders should not rush to revamp green-hydrogen rules.”

  • Bloomberg climate opinion editor Mark Gongloff: “A Supreme Court shield for big oil would come at your expense.”

  • Two Venezuelan experts write in Climate Home News that developing the country’s “untapped renewables potential would be a massive undertaking, but…the best way for the country to achieve stability and break oil-driven cycles of boom and bust”.

  • Heated is launching a new weekly video podcast.


America’s dangerous pursuit of critical-mineral dominance

Editorial, The Economist

A frontpage leader in the Economist examines the political implications of US efforts to “break China’s stronghold” on critical-mineral supplies. It says: “The battleground is the supply of ‘critical’ metals, a group of minerals vital to making military, electrical and computing infrastructure – everything modern economies need to be safe, high-tech and green. China supplies most of these: it mines about 80% of the world’s tungsten, for instance, and refines 99% of its gallium. This is spurring America into an all-out campaign to diversify its sourcing of 60 minerals.” Elsewhere, the