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The Morning Risk Report: Flurry of Suspicious Oil Trades Worth $800 Million Triggers Regulatory Probe
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By Richard Vanderford | Dow Jones Risk Journal
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Good morning. Moments before President Trump postponed strikes on Tehran’s energy infrastructure in a morning social-media post on March 23, a spasm of trades hit the market during off-hours. More than $800 million worth of U.S. and international oil futures changed hands in a matter of minutes, according to LSEG data.
The traders on the right side of those well-timed bets profited when U.S. oil prices fell as much as 13% in the wake of Trump’s change of heart. At least five firms posted gains of $5 million or more on crude futures they bought and sold that day, as measured by average prices adjusted for volume, according to trading records viewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is now scrutinizing the surge in trading volumes.
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Insider information? The regulator, which supervises futures markets, is trying to gauge whether an insider with prior knowledge of Trump’s March 23 post traded on that information or leaked it to someone who could do so, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Under investigation: The CFTC is interested in at least three firms as part of its inquiry, according to documents viewed by the Journal and one of the people. The firms haven’t been accused of wrongdoing, and it couldn’t be determined why the CFTC is interested in them. Investigators are wading into an arcane and secretive corner of markets where algorithms often dominate; the motivation for any given trade might be hard to deduce; and the line between luck and skill can be thin.
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Ongoing probe: The CFTC’s investigation is continuing. The CFTC is also looking into several other instances of suspicious trading regarding Iran-related announcements in April and May, the people familiar with the matter said.
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Content from our sponsor: Deloitte
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Women’s Sports Market Set to Reach $3 Billion, Unlocking New Opportunities
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Global revenue in women’s elite sports is expected to continue to grow in 2026, as increased investments reshape the ecosystem for leagues, partners, athletes, and fans. Read More
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Chirayu Rana in 2024. Photo: Michaela Bublikova/@dudesinsuits
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JPMorgan banker says sex-assault allegations have ruined her life.
Lorna Hajdini, the JPMorgan investment banker who was accused of sexual assault, countersued, saying the AI-generated memes and coverage of the lurid allegations have made her life “a daily, living nightmare.”
In a suit against her former colleague, Chirayu Rana, Hajdini said his allegations were entirely fabricated, have caused her mental harm and resulted in her losing a volunteering job. She is suing him for defamation and “malicious prosecution.”
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A Canadian steel company, its president and an affiliated entity agreed to pay $19 million to settle allegations by the U.S. Justice Department that the businesses failed to pay duties on flat-rolled steel made in Europe and Asia, Risk Journal reports (free link).
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The U.S. derivatives regulator, under a newly unveiled enforcement policy, said it would frequently decline to take legal action against companies that come forward to cooperate.
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A new executive order from President Trump would push banks to collect more information about their customers’ immigration status, part of an administration effort to crack down on undocumented immigrants’ access to the U.S. banking system.
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$37.7 Million
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The 2025 compensation of BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink. Shareholders signaled they weren't happy with the pay raise Fink and lieutenants received.
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Bill Winters, the chief executive of Standard Chartered, drew criticism on social media after his comments on Tuesday. Photo: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg News
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CEO walks back comment about replacing ‘lower-value human capital’ with AI.
Standard Chartered Chief Executive Bill Winters touched a nerve when he said his bank would slash thousands of jobs and replace “lower-value human capital” with artificial intelligence.
He walked back the comments on Wednesday in a memo to bank employees, who turned out to be valuable enough that he needed to assuage their feelings.
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Raúl Castro charged with murder in U.S. court.
The Trump administration has secured an indictment against Raúl Castro, Cuba’s aging patriarch and former president, escalating its pressure campaign as it seeks to force economic and political concessions from the country’s Communist regime.
Prosecutors charged Castro with murder, conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals and destruction of aircraft, according to court documents, dealing a blow to a leader of the Cuban revolution who remains the country’s most powerful figure despite his retirement from public life.
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President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a contentious call, people familiar with the matter said, with Netanyahu railing against a pact to end the war with Iran and Trump defending the diplomatic process.
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Iranians are enduring the longest and most intense internet blackout in history, compounding an economic crisis that sparked nationwide protests in December.
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European Union negotiators on Wednesday said they reached a provisional deal to remove some tariffs on U.S. imports as part of the bloc’s trade deal signed last summer, ahead of a U.S. deadline to ramp up tariffs on cars.
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Business activity in Europe and Asia has slowed in May as energy costs have risen and new orders cooled, an indication that the global economy has been weakened by the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East.
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Migration to the U.K. fell sharply and for a third straight year in 2025, a development that if sustained could slow economic growth in the years ahead.
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Thomas comes to the financial services firm from Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., an insurance brokerage, risk management and consulting firm, where she most recently served as a senior director of compliance, according to her LinkedIn profile. She also held roles at Astellas Pharmaceuticals, Takeda Pharmaceuticals and TAP Pharmaceuticals.
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ChatGPT-maker OpenAI has been working with bankers to prepare to file for an initial public offering in the coming days or weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Biopharmaceutical giant Bristol-Myers Squibb is bringing Anthropic’s flagship Claude product to more than 30,000 of its employees—deepening its use of artificial intelligence and AI agents for a variety of functions, from research to clinical development and corporate functions.
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Google has begun testing several new ad formats in both standard search results and its AI Mode as the race to turn artificial intelligence into ad revenue picks up.
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It’s about to get harder to earn an A at Harvard.
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