What matters in U.S. and global markets today
 

Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

Buybacks to the rescue? The surprising move by the U.S. Treasury to double the amount of bond buybacks in the two months before the midterm elections steadied the shaky government debt market on Wednesday.

The move was a surprise because the Treasury's quarterly refunding plans, published just two weeks ago, included no mention of a plan to step up the repurchase of older, less traded debt with long maturities.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why Treasury's latest sleight of hand might not shift the dial long term.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where we discuss the buybacks, America's growing debt pile, and Moderna and Merck's cancer vaccine breakthrough.

Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

 
 

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Today's Market Minute

  • Total U.S. debt has topped $40 trillion for the first time, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday, drawing fresh warnings that a fiscal crisis is brewing.
  • A majority of Americans believe President Donald Trump and his family have inappropriately profited from cryptocurrency since his return to power and that his policy decisions are influenced by his private business dealings, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
  • Moderna and Merck said on Wednesday that a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine reduced the risk of recurrence and spread of melanoma in a late-stage trial, a major success in a new field of cancer treatment that sent Moderna's shares surging as much ‌as 160%.
  • As the Iran war pushes the global oil refining industry to the brink, the energy crisis that really matters to the global economy is just getting started, argues ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.
  • Is soaring AI-linked corporate debt issuance really "crowding out" demand for Treasuries, pressuring yields? Not necessarily, explains ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.
 

Twist and shout

The recent storm in debt markets, which has seen long-dated yields surge to their highest levels in decades, clearly jarred the Treasury enough to prompt the action.

Will the retreat in yields last? Buybacks don't change the amount of debt being raised but may shift the emphasis to raising more short-term funds - something analysts commonly refer to as "operation twist".

But with the total U.S. government debt pile topping $40 trillion for the first time this week, more than double the tally a decade ago, the need to continually roll over bills and short debt could face problems of its own.

The timing of the buyback announcement helped the latest 20-year Treasury auction proceed without much difficulty, although relatively hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting suggest no relief in the cost of short-term debt servicing is coming any time soon.

One casualty of the Treasury's latest bond plan, however, was the dollar, which fell sharply across the board.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar was a big winner on Wednesday as details emerged of a potential trade deal with the U.S. to avert Washington's planned tariff increase. The deadline has been pushed back to Saturday.

Elsewhere, the bond bounce helped stocks steady too. The standout share move on Wednesday was a near-trebling of pharma firm Moderna's stock price after it revealed a breakthrough with Merck in developing vaccines for skin cancer - a potential game changer in all cancer treatments going forward.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

US relies on tactics, not strategy, to calm angry bonds

The U.S. Treasury can buy back bonds, soothe a rattled market and perhaps ease political pressure before the midterms.

But unless it addresses mounting debt, stubborn inflation and doubts about the Federal Reserve's direction, the relief will be fleeting - and could come at the dollar's expense.

 

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.