Vladimir Putin’s regime is enjoying Donald Trump’s estrangement from Volodymyr Zelensky. Kirill Dimitriev, Russia’s main negotiator with America over the Ukraine war, has been posting memes showing the Russian bear and the American eagle teaming up. European leaders must now provide even more support for Ukraine, but they will find it increasingly difficult. 

And midterm elections in America are now just a couple of weeks away. Both parties are scrambling to gain a late advantage, but the signs are not good for Republicans. Our Lexington columnist has cast his mind back to 2022, when what seemed like happy news for the Democrats turned out to be a disaster for them. He argues that it is Republicans who need to learn the lessons of those elections. 


What to expect in the week ahead:

▸ China publishes growth figures for the third quarter on Monday, as well as industrial production and retail sales. The data arrives at an uncertain time for the domestic economy. Short-term loans to consumers fell by 8.3% in September compared with the year before, the steepest drop on record, while year-on-year retail sales grew by only 0.4% in August.

▸ India’s biggest ever IPO opens on Wednesday. Jio Platforms, the telecoms arm of corporate colossus Reliance Industries, is seeking a valuation of around $108bn. Measured by the number of users, Jio is the second-biggest mobile operator in the world. The flotation comes after a decade of huge, capital-intensive bets that have turned Reliance, which will keep a majority stake, from an oil-and-chemicals company into a business empire woven into much of life in India.

▸ Voters in Brazil return to the ballot box on Sunday October 25th for a run-off in the presidential election. All signs point to a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro, inheritor of the populist right-wing movement founded by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, a former president who was sentenced to 27 years in jail for plotting a coup. In the first round, Flávio exceeded expectations by taking 47% of the vote while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the left-wing incumbent, won 45%. Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985, no candidate who lost the first round has won the run-off.